The odds Memphis upgrades from Desmond Bane with Orlando’s pick

On average, NBA draft classes produce approximately three to five All-Stars. Historic classes like 1984, 1996, and 2003 produced nine or 10.

Bane is not quite at the All-Star level, but his top-10-percent standing suggests there are roughly six to eight top-50-caliber players in a typical draft class relative to the 3-5 All-Star mark. There are 60 players drafted each year, and six out of 60 fit the 10 percent proportion.

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The 2026 class is viewed as potentially historic, headlined by BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, and Duke’s Cameron Boozer. The depth behind them is notable, too, with one-and-done freshmen like North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson, Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr., Houston’s Kingston Flemings, and Illinois’ Keaton Wagler all projecting as first-round talents.

In a draft that projects to produce more good players than average, let’s say Memphis needs to land one of the top eight picks to get a player better than Bane. That is obviously more likely with its own lottery selection than with Orlando’s. But there is still an opportunity to find a quality player with a later pick, especially in this class.

In ESPN’s latest mock draft, Jeremy Woo projects the Grizzlies to select Washington freshman Hannes Steinbach with the 16th overall pick. Danny Chau’s mock for The Ringer has Memphis taking Steinbach at 16 as well.

Steinbach’s production is hard to ignore – 18.5 points and 11.8 rebounds per game – but scouts are split on him. The main concern is positional fit. He profiles as a tweener between the four and five and is not a reliable defensive anchor. ESPN’s Woo has him ranked 14th overall, while The Ringer’s J. Kyle Mann slots him at 22.

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Players being ranked in a similar range include Alabama sophomore Labaron Philon, Michigan senior Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan junior Aday Mara, and Tennessee freshman Nate Ament.

Going back to the top eight objective, ESPN and The Ringer share these same nine names in their top 10 rankings: Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, Wilson, Acuff, Flemings, Wagler, Arizona freshman Brayden Burries, and Louisville freshman Mikel Brown Jr. It is unlikely all nine end up being the best players from this class, but it does illustrate that whoever Memphis drafts with Orlando’s pick will not come from the top two or three tiers of prospects.

The odds that Zach Kleiman drafts a better player than Bane with his second first-rounder are long.

That said, the Grizzlies did not trade Bane in an attempt to replace him outright. The decision came down to salary cap and apron management, the total asset package Orlando offered, and whether Bane’s contract was worth it given Memphis’ roster construction. As good as Bane is, a five-year, $197 million deal for a third option is a steep price to pay. Getting out from under it while collecting the return Memphis did made plenty of sense.

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Whether the Grizzlies hit with Orlando’s pick or not, there is still one more unprotected first-rounder and a swap year ahead. This pick is one piece of a much larger puzzle.

This article was originally published on www.si.com/nba/grizzlies/onsi as The odds Memphis upgrades from Desmond Bane with Orlando’s pick.