{"id":102007,"date":"2026-04-09T07:03:40","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T10:03:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/viktor-orban-trump-could-soon-lose-his-best-friend-in-europe\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T07:03:43","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T10:03:43","slug":"viktor-orban-trump-could-soon-lose-his-best-friend-in-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/viktor-orban-trump-could-soon-lose-his-best-friend-in-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Viktor Orb\u00e1n: Trump could soon lose his best friend in Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

\n
\n Budapest, Hungary<\/span>\u00a0\u2014\u00a0<\/span>
\n <\/cite><\/p>\n

\n When Vice President JD Vance held his phone to the mic, it seemed for a moment as though his boss might not pick up<\/a>. But at the second attempt, and after a few rings, he got through to Donald Trump. In the president\u2019s defense, he had plenty on his mind, having threatened hours earlier to destroy \u201ca whole civilization\u201d<\/a> in Iran.\n <\/p>\n

\n That crisis felt a world away from the MTK Sportpark in Budapest<\/a>, where a few thousand Hungarians had gathered to celebrate \u201cThe Day of Hungarian-American Friendship.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Billed as the celebration of friendship between the two nations, the day was really about friendship between Trump and Victor Orb\u00e1n, Hungary\u2019s populist prime minister \u2013 a darling of the MAGA movement who is trailing in the polls ahead of parliamentary elections this weekend.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cI\u2019m a big fan of Viktor. I\u2019m with him all the way. The United States is with him all the way,\u201d Trump told the crowd. Vance said he was in Budapest to help Orb\u00e1n \u201cas much as I possibly can.\u201d In a visit to Budapest in February, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that \u201cHungary\u2019s success is our success.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n
\n <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n At first glance, it is not clear why the \u201csuccess\u201d of Orb\u00e1n\u2019s Hungary \u2013 considered the most corrupt<\/a>, the least free<\/a>, and among the poorer countries in the European Union \u2013 should have any bearing on the \u201csuccess\u201d of the United States.\n <\/p>\n

\n But to Ivan Krastev, a Bulgarian political scientist who has known Orb\u00e1n since the 1990s, the situation is not so strange. Over his 16 years in office, Orb\u00e1n has fashioned Hungary into the \u201cintellectual, institutional, and financial hub\u201d of the European right, Krastev said. The Trump administration views Orb\u00e1n and the ideological infrastructure he has built as central to its push<\/a> for a more \u201clike-minded\u201d Europe \u2013 that is, anti-woke, anti-green, anti-immigrant.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThis American administration believes that there is a Trumpian revolution, and that this Trumpian revolution is coming to Europe, and that Europe is just one electoral cycle behind the United States,\u201d Krastev, chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria, told CNN.\n <\/p>\n

\n Sunday\u2019s election will test that belief. The opposition Tisza party, led by P\u00e9ter Magyar, has held a double-digit lead over Orban\u2019s Fidesz party in most polls for more than a year. Magyar, an Orban loyalist-turned-nemesis<\/a>, has stayed clear of the prime minister\u2019s favored terrain of foreign policy and focused instead on kitchen-table issues like corruption, health care and people\u2019s wallets.\n <\/p>\n

\n For Hungarians, the election may offer a chance to see what a future without Orb\u00e1n might look like. But its effects could be felt much farther away. \u201cIf Orb\u00e1n loses \u2013 the man who is the symbol of the strength of the far right \u2013 this is going to have an incredible psychological impact,\u201d said Krastev.\n <\/p>\n

\n
\n \"Supporters<\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n Political scientists have had a hard time defining the \u201cmodel\u201d Orb\u00e1n has built. Some call it a \u201chybrid regime\u201d \u2013 not an autocracy, but not fully democratic, either. Some go for \u201ccompetitive authoritarianism,\u201d because the government, though somewhat authoritarian, still faces competitive elections. Or, to use Orb\u00e1n\u2019s own phrase, Hungary is an \u201cilliberal democracy\u201d \u2013 a system where everyone gets a vote, but where there is less tolerance of opposing views.\n <\/p>\n

\n P\u00e9ter Krek\u00f3, a political scientist who runs a think-tank in Budapest, prefers \u201cinformational autocracy.\u201d Unlike the autocracies of the 20th century, there is next to no threat of physical violence in Orb\u00e1n\u2019s Hungary, he said. Instead, damage is done in the world of words and ideas.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cIf you criticize the system, they don\u2019t want to immediately censor, suppress and silence you,\u201d Krek\u00f3 told CNN. \u201cIt\u2019s much more smear campaigns, disinformation campaigns against you. Character assassination.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n For the system to work, it needs a steady supply of enemies, said Istv\u00e1n Heged\u0171s, who served alongside Orb\u00e1n in Hungary\u2019s first freely elected parliament in 1990. Although Orb\u00e1n has come a long way since his younger days as a liberal anti-communist, \u201chis way of thinking was always black and white, friends and enemies, us and them \u2013 as it is now,\u201d Heged\u0171s told CNN.\n <\/p>\n

\n Over 16 years, Orb\u00e1nism has found enough enemies to sustain itself. \u201cThe system started to behave in a much rougher, more brutal way with its campaigns against NGOs,\u201d Heged\u0171s said. Then came the \u201ccampaign against liberal philosophers, then free media, journalists,\u201d and the Central European University (CEU).\n <\/p>\n

\n
\n \"Orb\u00e1n,<\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n Once one of the best-funded liberal arts universities in the post-Soviet world, Orb\u00e1n picked a fight with it because he had branded the man who funded it \u2013 George Soros, the liberal philanthropist \u2013 as an enemy of Hungary. Facing unrelenting pressure from the Orb\u00e1n government, it moved its academic operations to Vienna, Austria, in 2018.\n <\/p>\n

\n Today, the CEU maintains something of a ghostly presence in Budapest. Its campus still stands, and researchers \u2013 Krek\u00f3 among them \u2013 still use it as office space. Just as there is no need for physical violence against the population, there was no need to physically shutter the campus; sustained pressure was enough for Orb\u00e1n to get his way.\n <\/p>\n

\n Once the CEU was ousted, another college took its place as Budapest\u2019s premier educational institution. The Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC) \u2013 funded in recent years by a generous government grant of a 10% stake in Hungary\u2019s largest oil and gas company \u2013 now functions as something of a training ground for national conservatives across Europe.\n <\/p>\n

\n Vance paid the MCC a visit Wednesday morning. If the crowd at MTK Sportpark was past its prime \u2013 a few MAGA hats, far outnumbered by graying, balding heads \u2013 the audience at the MCC was mostly 20-something men, with slicked-back hair and tight-fitting suits.\n <\/p>\n

\n
\n \"A<\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n \u201cThe MCC is not just an institution. It is a mission,\u201d said Bal\u00e1zs Orb\u00e1n, the prime minister\u2019s political director (no relation), introducing the vice president. Before Vance spoke, the audience listened to a panel that included Gladden Pappin \u2013 a US-born, Harvard-educated adviser to the prime minister, who once reportedly predicted<\/a> that Trump would dissolve Congress, paving the way for the pope to anoint Melania Trump to rule the US as queen.\n <\/p>\n

\n Vance\u2019s address to the MCC was not so far-fetched. \u201cResist the temptation to think that victory is immediate, or that we\u2019re going to win back our civilization through instant gratification,\u201d he told the potential next generation of culture warriors. \u201cOur civilization was not built overnight. It\u2019s not going to be saved overnight.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n The MCC is just one piece of Orb\u00e1n\u2019s ideological infrastructure. There are well-funded conservative think-tanks, like the Danube Institute and the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs. There are glossy publications, like The European Conservative, and online sites like Remix News, which details alleged crimes committed by migrants in Europe. It is through this architecture of soft power, Krastev said, that Orb\u00e1n has made himself \u201cfor the western far right what Fidel Castro was for the left in the 1970s.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n It took some years, but America started to notice. Steve Bannon, the architect of Trump\u2019s first presidential campaign, was among the initial cheerleaders. Speaking from Hungary in 2018, Bannon called Orb\u00e1n \u201cTrump before Trump.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Within a few years, the Conservative Political Action Conference, long a cornerstone of the American right, had established a recurring presence in Hungary. While still at Fox News, Tucker Carlson broadcast his popular prime time show from Hungary, and interviewed Orb\u00e1n. Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation \u2013 the conservative US think-tank that authored Project 2025 \u2013 has described Hungary \u201cnot just as a model for modern statecraft, but the model.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Having established Budapest as MAGA\u2019s European headquarters, Orb\u00e1n has begun to reap rewards from the relationship.\n <\/p>\n

\n Orb\u00e1n was panicked last fall after the Trump administration announced sanctions on the purchase of Russian oil. Because Hungary is almost entirely dependent on energy imports from Russia, Orb\u00e1n had warned that such measures would bring Hungary\u2019s economy \u201cto its knees.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n
\n \"Russia<\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n Thankfully for the prime minister, Trump granted Hungary a one-year exemption from the US sanctions<\/a>, even though he had long berated EU countries for continuing to buy Russian oil, which he said helps fuel the Kremlin\u2019s war machine and prolong the war in Ukraine. On Tuesday, Vance even praised Orb\u00e1n\u2019s energy policy, claiming the rest of Europe \u201cshould have been following\u201d his policies.\n <\/p>\n

\n It is not yet clear whether Vance\u2019s visit will help or hinder Orb\u00e1n\u2019s Fidesz party in Sunday\u2019s parliamentary ballot. The leader has decried alleged foreign interference in Hungary\u2019s elections yet seemed happy to accept endorsements from his backers in Washington. Vance told the crowd at MTK Sportpark \u201cgo to the polls\u201d and \u201cstand with Viktor Orb\u00e1n, because he stands with you.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n In a terse statement about Vance\u2019s visit, Magyar, head of the opposition Tisza party, said: \u201cNo foreign country may interfere in Hungarian elections\u2026 Hungarian history is not written in Washington, Moscow, or Brussels \u2013 it is written in Hungary\u2019s streets and squares.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n
\n \"Magyar,<\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n It is notable, said Krastev, that after so long governing as a \u201cnationalist,\u201d Orb\u00e1n is calling for international support to bolster his campaign. \u201cThe irony is that if he\u2019s going to lose, he\u2019s going to lose like a globalist,\u201d he said.\n <\/p>\n

\n If Orb\u00e1n loses, the ideological architecture he has built will not collapse. Right-wing intellectuals will still find a home in Budapest, conservative publications will continue to print, and the MCC will not shutter. Although perhaps in time, like the CEU, it might cast a ghostlier presence in the city.\n <\/p>\n

\n But an Orb\u00e1n loss would sap the confidence of the European nationalist movements that he \u2013 and more recently the Trump administration \u2013 are trying to internationalize.\n <\/p>\n

\n Meanwhile, for the Russians and Americans \u2013 who find themselves backing the same candidate \u2013 Orban\u2019s loss \u201cwould not just be a defeat, it would be humiliation,\u201d Krastev said.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cYou have these two superpowers who are pretending they can divide Europe. Suddenly, their candidate is losing after they have done everything possible for him to win. This is going to give a lot of strength to the sense of European resilience.\u201d\n <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n


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Budapest, Hungary\u00a0\u2014\u00a0 When Vice President JD Vance held his phone to the mic, it seemed for a moment as though his boss might not pick up. But at the second attempt, and after a few rings, he got through to Donald Trump. 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