<\/p>\n Mikhail Galustov\/Bloomberg via Getty Images<\/p>\n
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Russia’s experience has also made it more effective at using its systems to shoot down Ukrainian aircraft and drones, and it has upgraded its systems with new hardware and software.<\/p>\n
“Russian SAM systems not only remain numerous but are also likely to perform better against NATO aircraft and munitions in a hypothetical direct conflict than they would have before 2022,” Bronk said.<\/p>\n
Russian forces have also shown improvement at coordinating the use of their aircraft and ground-based missile systems, Bronk said. That means a more coordinated threat to NATO aircraft if there were to be a direct conflict.<\/p>\n
In a fight, though, as the Pentagon is fond of saying, the enemy gets a vote. While Russia may be more threatening than it was, NATO militaries are heavily armed with combat-proven equipment handled by skilled operators.<\/p>\n
Russia doesn’t outmatch NATO, Bronk said, but “they are more of a credible threat.”<\/p>\n
He predicted that Russia would still “struggle significantly in a direct air-to-air clash with Western forces. I think they would come off pretty badly.” But the problem is that the fight wouldn’t just be in the air; it would also have the power and effect of ground-based air defenses.<\/p>\n
US and Western officials have said that Russia’s fighting style and formidable defenses show that the West may not be able to get control of the air<\/a> in a future large-scale war, which would make the fight harder and riskier for aircraft and potentially drag Western forces into an attritional slog \u2014 Russia’s way of war.<\/p>\nRussia still has many problems, including a rigid command structure that limits flexibility and adaptation and limits on the Western technology it can access to build higher-end systems.<\/p>\n
And NATO has learned a lot from the war, from Ukraine, for example, gaining more accurate data about Russia’s surface-to-air missile systems, including their strengths and weaknesses, than it had before 2022, Bronk said. NATO, he added, has the right weaponry to counter them, “albeit not in sufficient numbers in Europe yet.”<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n