Paolo Banchero<\/strong>, who was somehow worse than his 22-point box score suggests in Orlando\u2019s 109-97 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Paolo Banchero and Orlando’s offense are hard to trust<\/h3>\n <\/p>\n
Banchero shot 7-of-22 from the field, went 0-for-5 from deep, finished with 6 turnovers and 4 assists, and posted the worst plus-minus in the game at -17. He looked sloppy, indecisive, and completely out of rhythm.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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For a guy who dominates the ball as much as he does, that is a huge red flag going into another elimination game. That\u2019s really the core of the handicap here: Both teams are leaning heavily on ball-dominant stars who were wildly inefficient in their previous games.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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Orlando\u2019s half-court offense was especially brutal. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, the Magic scored just 80.2 points per 100 half-court plays against the Sixers Wednesday. That number is hideous. For context, it would be NBA-worst offensive efficiency over a full season, and Philadelphia was only 16th in defensive rating during the regular season.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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Charlotte wasn\u2019t nearly that bad, but the Hornets weren\u2019t exactly humming either. They scored 99.0 points per 100 half-court plays against Miami Tuesday, which ranks in just the 57th percentile league-wide.<\/p>\n
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\u2018Styles Make Fights\u2019<\/h3>\n <\/p>\n
This matchup points to a rock-fight<\/i>. Three of the four Hornets-Magic meetings during the regular season played at a slower tempo, and Charlotte has played at the second-slowest pace in the NBA since the All-Star break at 95.7 possessions per 48 minutes. Add in the pressure of an elimination game, and this has all the ingredients of a half-court grinder.<\/p>\n
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That matters because a slow-paced game between a bad offense and a slow offense is exactly what Under bettors want. Especially when both teams are being steered by inefficient, high-usage players who looked shaky under pressure earlier this week.<\/p>\n
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<\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/div>\n\n
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Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero drives to the basket on Charlotte Hornets forward Miles Bridges at Spectrum Center in North Carolina. (Photo Credit: Brian Westerholt-Imagn Images)<\/p>\n
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Now, there are paths for this to blow up.<\/p>\n
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Charlotte combo guard Coby White<\/strong> got hot in the first-round play-in. Magic SG Desmond Bane<\/strong> did, too. If the role players catch fire again, the Under is screwed. Orlando also led the NBA in offensive free-throw rate, which is always scary for an Under if the refs don’t “let ’em play”.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
The best bet is still Under 218.5 (down to 217)<\/h3>\n <\/p>\n
But those are the risks with almost any Under. The stronger angle is still the one staring us in the face.<\/p>\n
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The projected pace is slow. The stakes are high. And neither offense looks ready for playoff basketball.<\/p>\n
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That\u2019s enough for me.<\/p>\n
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Prediction: Hornets 108, Magic 105<\/h4>\n <\/p>\n
_____________________________<\/i><\/p>\n
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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark<\/a>, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast<\/a> for more betting content and random rants. Track my NBA 2025-26 bets here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n