{"id":120759,"date":"2026-05-01T19:32:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T22:32:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/giants-rays-series-preview-the-rays-have-done-it-again\/"},"modified":"2026-05-01T19:32:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T22:32:12","slug":"giants-rays-series-preview-the-rays-have-done-it-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/giants-rays-series-preview-the-rays-have-done-it-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Giants-Rays Series Preview: The Rays have done it again"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Coming off back to back losing seasons, Baseball\u2019s intellgentsia and proprietary projection systems had it out for the Tampa Bay Rays this past winter. MLB.com<\/a> ranked them 22nd before a pitch was even thrown and a pair of experts<\/a> didn\u2019t predict them to be competitve in the Wild Card race. PECOTA<\/a> projected 81 or 82 wins while ZiPS<\/a> bleep-blooped a 74-win team. But they\u2019ve started the season 18-12, demonstrating a return to their historical track record of flustering prognosticators with their own brand of data-driven baseball.<\/p>\n

How are they doing this? They\u2019re not the best offense. Their team wRC+ of 97 is ranked 16th in MLB, as are their 137 runs scored. They do lead the American League in stolen bases with 34, but I\u2019ll talk about those more in a bit. Their 8.9% is pedestrian (22nd) as is their .128 ISO (25th), but their sparkly 19.1 K% as a team is second-best behind only the Blue Jays. Their team OBP of .327 is 10th in MLB and when they get on base not only can they use their team speed to steal, they can also use it to run the bases well. Their +1.4 Baserunning Runs is 7th in MLB (the Giants are, of course, dead last in this category, as they are with most things because they\u2019re a bad baseball team).<\/p>\n

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Leading the Rays in this baserunning prowess is 25-year old Chandler Simpson, who\u2019s already at +1.2 Baserunning runs through 30 games. He is incredibly <\/em>fast (29.6 ft\/sec sprint speed \u2014 99th percentile). Here\u2019s a highlight video put out by MLB.com from his 2025 rookie season and if you watch it you\u2019ll notice that he has unusual speed because of where he is when the camera angle changes. He is already 75% of the way to second base by the time the catcher uncorks a throw, for example. Or when the camera cuts from the pitcher\u2019s mound angle to the outfield angle, he\u2019s already closed the gap so that he\u2019s taking just a few steps to make the defensive play.<\/p>\n

There is also an early highlight of a bunt that made my stomach rumble thinking when imagining the Giants having to defend it.<\/p>\n

Speaking of the Giants, our favorite team (unfortunately), this Chandler Simpson fellow is Buster Posey<\/a>\u2019s platonic ideal of a Giant. He plays great defense (already +4 Outs Above Average in left and +2.4 Defensive Runs Above Average), makes a lot of contact and doesn\u2019t walk very much (.314\/.349\/.356 with a 5.4 K% and 7.8 BB%) and is fast. He\u2019s just 1 shy (37) of the team lead for hits, trailing only the veteran Yandy Diaz<\/a> (38). He has just 1 double and 2 triples. If the Giants don\u2019t keep him off base, it\u2019s going to be a rough series.<\/p>\n

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But it\u2019s not all <\/em>Chandler Simpson here. Diaz is off to another great start, leading the Rays with a 152 wRC+ and a really nice 9.8 BB% to 12 K%. 22-year old sensation Junior Caminero<\/a> hit 45 home runs last season and has 8 already in 2026. But also \u2014 and here\u2019s where things get really <\/em>Rays-y \u2014 27-year old Jonathan Aranda<\/a> has 7 homers in his first 132 PA after hitting just 24 in his prior 755 across four seasons. He\u2019ll turn 27 at the end of the month and so it\u2019s entirely possible that he\u2019s setup to have a Casey Schmittesque breakout age-27 season<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Rays are constantly retooling and relying on these breakouts. They traded away longtime Ray Brandon Lowe<\/a>, their closer Pete Fairbanks<\/a>, platoon outfielder Josh Lowe<\/a>, and released lefty reliever Mason Montgomery<\/a> and Adrian Houser<\/a>. Their offseason transactions page (as assembled by MLB Trade Rumors) is really quite something<\/a>. They did, essentially, replace these players in the aggregate through trades and a few free agent signings. Houser is now Nick Martinez<\/a>, who is off to a terrific start (1.70 ERA in 6 starts). Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe are a combination of Jonathan Aranda and Jake Fraley<\/a>? They acquired Ryan Vilade<\/a> from the Reds<\/a> to make him a utility player. He had 71 PA before this season and an MLB career triple slash of .141\/.200\/.188, but in his first 35 PA with the Rays, he\u2019s hitting .344\/.400\/.406.<\/p>\n

On the pitching side, not only has Nick Martinez dazzled, but Steven Matz<\/a> has been solid (4.31 ERA in 6 starts). Their closer, Bryan Baker<\/a>, was acquired during last year\u2019s trade deadline and he has capably replaced Pete Fairbanks in the role (7 saves in 11.1 IP, 2.78 FIP). Overall, though, their pitching staff has been about as good as the Giants\u2019, which is to say that it\u2019s basically mediocre. They\u2019ve also used just 32 players (the Giants have used 31). So, why the early season success?<\/p>\n

Well, besides playing in Tropicana Field for the first time since it was heavily damaged by Hurricane Milton, I\u2019d say these two stats explain it:<\/p>\n

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