{"id":125396,"date":"2026-05-09T18:41:28","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T21:41:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/record-el-nino-forecast-model-is-literally-off-the-charts\/"},"modified":"2026-05-09T18:41:32","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T21:41:32","slug":"record-el-nino-forecast-model-is-literally-off-the-charts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/record-el-nino-forecast-model-is-literally-off-the-charts\/","title":{"rendered":"Record El Ni\u00f1o forecast model is literally off the charts"},"content":{"rendered":"


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The sun reflects on the Pacific Ocean as it sets in March off the Southern California coast. The Pacific, in the tropics, may be poised for record warmth.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/span>Kevin Carter\/Getty Images<\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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A freight train of warm water is surging eastward in the tropical Pacific Ocean, kick-starting what is on track to be the strongest El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o ever observed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The latest model projections are off the charts. Literally.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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If these models prove accurate, it will set off dramatic weather impacts everywhere from California\u2019s coast to the Arctic Ocean.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Most forecast models project Pacific Ocean temperatures to be warmer than the average by at least 3 degrees Celsius by November. For sea surface temperatures across this patch of the central Pacific, even a bump of 1 or 2 degrees Celsius is enough to reshape rainfall, storm tracks and temperatures around the world.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Such an event would surpass the peaks of the 1997-98 and 2015-16 super El Ni\u00f1os, the strongest on record. In those years, ocean surface temperatures were 2.4 and 2.6 degrees Celsius above average, respectively.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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That\u2019s not all: Several recent model projections take the anomaly even further, past 3.5 degrees Celsius and into territory that requires the standard El Ni\u00f1o tracking chart to be redrawn.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The May 1\u00a0ECMWF seasonal forecast plume for the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Each red line represents one of the model\u2019s 51 ensemble members. Most cluster well above 3 degrees Celsius by November, with several pushing past 3.5 degrees Celsius.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/span>ECMWF <\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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A month ago, atmospheric scientist Paul\u00a0Roundy of the State University of New York at Albany estimated that the developing El Ni\u00f1o had roughly<\/a> a 30% chance of becoming the strongest event in 140 years. As of this week, he has raised that estimate to 50%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThere has been enough momentum already transferred to the ocean to make a strong El Ni\u00f1o event a virtual certainty,\u201d Roundy said in an email, \u201cbut it remains a little less certain whether the event gets into record territory.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The American multi-model ensemble, an aggregation of leading forecast systems run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, came to a similar conclusion in its update this week. The ensemble\u2019s peak ocean temperature forecast now sits at 3.1 degrees Celsius warmer than average for November, with the event sustained at record-strong levels through at least January.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The Pacific is already roasting<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
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The Pacific is already running hot at the bottom of the ocean. Below the surface, temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific are now more than 7 degrees Celsius above normal, more heat at this stage of an El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s development than has been observed in the modern record.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Surface warmth alone can fade quickly when the trade winds\u00a0\u2014 which blow east to west\u00a0\u2014 rebound. But heat stored hundreds of feet below the ocean surface is harder to reverse. It is what gives a developing El Ni\u00f1o staying power, and it is the central reason this event looks nothing like the 2014 false start, when the warming faded by April and the anticipated El Ni\u00f1o didn\u2019t arrive for another year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n