{"id":125951,"date":"2026-05-10T10:05:27","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T13:05:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/super-el-nino-increasingly-likely-could-be-record-strong\/"},"modified":"2026-05-10T10:05:27","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T13:05:27","slug":"super-el-nino-increasingly-likely-could-be-record-strong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/super-el-nino-increasingly-likely-could-be-record-strong\/","title":{"rendered":"Super El Ni\u00f1o Increasingly Likely, Could Be Record Strong"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Some El Ni\u00f1o Years Bring Early Hurricanes<\/p>\n

A super El Ni\u00f1o <\/a>is increasingly likely later this year, and it could become record strong with potential global impacts on rainfall and temperatures from summer through winter, as well as the 2026 hurricane season<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Trending Toward El Ni\u00f1o<\/h2>\n

The central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters continue a steady march toward El Ni\u00f1o following the La Ni\u00f1a that was in place since last summer.<\/p>\n

You can see this in the animation from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center below. Note the warmer than average ocean water encroaching from both the east and west near the equator while the cool anomalies have faded since the middle of February.<\/p>\n

\"test-sstaanim.gif\"
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This animation shows ocean surface temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius over the tropical Pacific Ocean from Feb. 11 – April 29, 2026.\n<\/p>\n

(NOAA\/CPC)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Latest Model Forecasts<\/h2>\n

Various computer forecast models run this month continue to be bullish on this future El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

For instance, the latest forecast from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has trended stronger for the upcoming El Ni\u00f1o compared to last month’s forecast, as you can see in the animation below.<\/p>\n

While this model has previously forecast water temperatures too warm in spring forecasts, so far that “too warm error” hasn’t happened this year<\/a>, according to University of Miami scientist Andy Hazelton.<\/p>\n

\"ECMWF
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ECMWF ensemble model forecasts made on April 1 (first frame) and May 1 (second frame), 2026, for sea-surface temperature anomalies (in degrees Celsius) for the upcoming El Ni\u00f1o through late 2026. <\/p>\n

(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

‘Super El Ni\u00f1o’<\/h2>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a periodic warming of water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect global weather patterns for months. There have been 27 El Ni\u00f1os since 1950, with one happening on average every three to four years. The last one happened from summer 2023 into early spring 2024.<\/p>\n

But this won’t be your garden-variety, weak El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

The majority of model forecasts now suggest there is at least a 50-50 chance this El Ni\u00f1o could become a “super El Ni\u00f1o,” one in which ocean surface temperatures are at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average.<\/p>\n

(WATCH: <\/strong>What Is A Super El Ni\u00f1o?<\/strong><\/a>)<\/strong><\/p>\n

These super El Ni\u00f1os are more rare.<\/p>\n

There have been only five since 1950, the last occurring 11 years ago from 2015-16. They also occured in 1997-98, 1991-92, 1982-83 and 1972-73. Super El Ni\u00f1os have also been documented in 1888-89 and 1877-78.<\/p>\n

Record Strong?<\/h2>\n

Several model forecasts now suggest this El Ni\u00f1o could eventually top out at least 2.5 degrees above average by autumn, placing it among the most intense on record.<\/p>\n

“Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Ni\u00f1o event since the 1870s,” wrote Paul Roundy, a University of Albany professor and El Ni\u00f1o expert, in a post<\/a> on X Tuesday.<\/p>\n

You can see this tongue of anomalously warm water forecast by the European model in the map below, stretching from the coast of South America to the central Pacific Ocean near the equator.<\/p>\n

\"ECMWF
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The forecast sea-surface temperature anomalies \u2014 in degrees Celsius \u2014 from August-October 2026, based on the May 1 forecast. The potential super El Ni\u00f1o is depicted by the darkest brown contours from South America to the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. <\/p>\n

(European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Another reason boosting confidence in this intense El Ni\u00f1o are surges of westerly winds near the equator in the western Pacific called westerly wind bursts.<\/p>\n

“These periods of strong winds blowing west to east are pushing warm waters onto the equator and driving them eastward, contributing to rapid warming in the eastern Pacific,” Roundy wrote in an earlier email to weather.com.<\/p>\n

Roundy noted an early April burst was one of the strongest in at least several decades and in his same X post<\/a> said, “The next substantial westerly wind event will likely occur during the last 10 days of May.”<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s Potential Impacts<\/h2>\n

First, some disclaimers.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o (and its counterpart, La Ni\u00f1a) is only one influence on the global weather pattern. Also, every El Ni\u00f1o is different, much like every hurricane can have its own idiosyncrasies.<\/p>\n

But, in general, the stronger the El Ni\u00f1o, the more likely it will impact global weather.<\/p>\n

Here are some of those potential impacts.<\/p>\n

Hurricane season<\/em><\/p>\n

A stronger El Ni\u00f1o tends to produce more sinking air and stronger wind shear in parts of the Atlantic Basin, both hostile to hurricanes.<\/p>\n

So, in general, most stronger El Ni\u00f1o Atlantic hurricane seasons are quieter than average. That’s not always the case, as the 2023 season illustrated<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons are typically more active during strong El Ni\u00f1os.<\/p>\n

(IN DEPTH: <\/strong>Strong El Ni\u00f1o Hurricane Seasons<\/strong><\/a> | Effects On Tracks<\/strong><\/a> | Caribbean Travel Impacts<\/strong><\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"el_nino_hurricane_caribbean_shear.jpg\"<\/figure>\n

Winter<\/em><\/p>\n

In winter, the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream usually is turbocharged in a stronger El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

That means a wetter winter usually is the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough, as we illustrated in a previous deep dive<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, much of the northern U.S. typically has a milder and drier winter during a stronger El Ni\u00f1o, from the Northwest and northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest.<\/p>\n

(IN DEPTH: <\/strong>What A Super El Ni\u00f1o Means For Winter In Your State<\/strong><\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"el_nino_teleconnections_2.jpg\"<\/figure>\n

Global Precipitation<\/em><\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o’s impacts typically extend around the globe. Those are highlighted on the map below.<\/p>\n

For example, parts of Africa, India, Australia, the Philippines, Indonesia, the Caribbean and northern South America trend markedly drier during El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, warm water and lighter trade winds typically sets the table for heavier rain in parts of Ecuador and Peru. Parts of eastern Africa, central Asia, Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay are also usually wetter than average during El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

\"El
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Typical global precipitation impacts during an El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

(NOAA)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Global Temperatures<\/em><\/p>\n

One impact we’re highly confident about is a spike in global temperatures during this El Ni\u00f1o. At the risk of oversimplifying, all this extra equatorial Pacific Ocean heat is released into the atmosphere, and all large swaths of drier conditions allow plentiful sunshine to heat the surface.<\/p>\n

As the graph below nicely illustrates, the large majority of El Ni\u00f1os have triggered temperature spikes, including the last “non-super” El Ni\u00f1o in 2023.<\/p>\n

The previous super El Ni\u00f1o crushed previous global temperature records in 2015 and 2016. Those two years remain among the top 10 warmest years for the planet, all of which have occurred since 2015<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Given last year was the planet’s third warmest year, it seems like a slam dunk that new heat records will be set in 2026, possibly again in 2027.<\/p>\n

From a climate change angle, this is worrisome.<\/p>\n

A December 2025 study<\/a> found super El Ni\u00f1o events can drive sudden “climate regime shifts” in both temperatures and precipitation, and that this effect could be increasing in a warming world.<\/p>\n

(MORE: <\/strong>Summer 2026 Outlook<\/strong><\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"Global
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Monthly global temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius from 1950 through February 2026. El Ni\u00f1o months are denoted in red, La Ni\u00f1a months are in blue, and months in a neutral phase are in gray. <\/p>\n

(NOAA\/NCEI)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on <\/em>Bluesky<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>X (formerly Twitter)<\/em><\/a> and <\/em>Facebook<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n