{"id":129524,"date":"2026-05-14T11:06:07","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T14:06:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/el-nino-is-coming-chances-rising-it-will-be-historically-strong\/"},"modified":"2026-05-14T11:06:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T14:06:10","slug":"el-nino-is-coming-chances-rising-it-will-be-historically-strong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/el-nino-is-coming-chances-rising-it-will-be-historically-strong\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o is coming, chances rising it will be historically strong"},"content":{"rendered":"


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\n El Ni\u00f1o is emerging<\/a> even faster than expected in the Pacific Ocean and odds are increasing that it could become historically strong \u2014 a rare \u201cSuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 by fall or winter.\n <\/p>\n

\n This is according to a just-released update from NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center that says there is a 2 in 3 chance that El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s peak strength will be strong or very strong.\n <\/p>\n

\n El Ni\u00f1o is a natural climate cycle that happens when the tropical Pacific Ocean warms enough to trigger shifts in wind patterns throughout the atmosphere, which has a ripple effect on weather conditions worldwide.\n <\/p>\n

\n Droughts and heat waves can flourish in some regions, fueling wildfire danger and water supply concerns, while others are swamped by flooding rainfall. El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s far-reaching effects can also stymie the Atlantic hurricane season. On a larger scale, it causes already rising global temperatures from human-caused climate change to spike even higher. Stronger El Ni\u00f1os make all these impacts more likely.\n <\/p>\n

\n El Ni\u00f1o occurs about every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months<\/a>. Its strength is measured by how far water temperatures rise above average in a patch of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and it usually peaks in the Northern Hemisphere\u2019s winter.\n <\/p>\n

\n Weak El Ni\u00f1o conditions develop once the temperature rises over 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for an extended period of time. Water temperatures must be more than 2 degrees above average for it to be considered a very strong or Super El Ni\u00f1o.\n <\/p>\n

\n The average water temperature is just below the 0.5-degree threshold right now, but it\u2019s now <\/strong>expected to climb above it by next month, according to Thursday\u2019s monthly update from the Climate Prediction Center<\/a>. That\u2019s a notable change from last month\u2019s update, which favored neutral conditions \u2014 neither El Ni\u00f1o or its cooler counterpart La Ni\u00f1a \u2014 through June. <\/strong>\n <\/p>\n

\n El Ni\u00f1o is then likely to strengthen through the summer and fall. The chances of it lasting through winter have also increased to 96%, a near lock that it does so.\n <\/p>\n

\n The boost in confidence is due to the vast pool of warm water that\u2019s built up in the depths of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in recent weeks. This water will eventually rise to the surface, kickstart El Ni\u00f1o and keep strengthening it from there.\n <\/p>\n

\n But while forecasters are more confident in it forming, \u201cthere is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d the Climate Prediction Center said.\n <\/p>\n

\n Still, the odds of a Super El Ni\u00f1o between November and January have increased from a 1 in 4 chance last month to about a 1 in 3 chance in the latest strength probabilities from the CPC.\n <\/p>\n

\n A stronger El Ni\u00f1o is more likely if changes in the atmosphere continue to sync with changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean this summer, like seeing winds near the equator weaken at the same time ocean temperatures rise, said Michelle L\u2019Heureux, a scientist who leads El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a forecasting at the CPC.\n <\/p>\n

\n Some typically reliable computer models show this year\u2019s potential Super El Ni\u00f1o could even be the strongest on record. It would be the first Super El Ni\u00f1o since 2015-2016, which was the strongest in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records dating to 1950. Others include<\/a> 1997-1998, 1982-1983 and 1972-1973.\n <\/p>\n

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