{"id":130254,"date":"2026-05-15T07:02:13","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T10:02:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/sugar-prices-push-higher-amid-the-outlook-for-tighter-supplies\/"},"modified":"2026-05-15T07:02:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T10:02:17","slug":"sugar-prices-push-higher-amid-the-outlook-for-tighter-supplies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/sugar-prices-push-higher-amid-the-outlook-for-tighter-supplies\/","title":{"rendered":"Sugar Prices Push Higher Amid the Outlook for Tighter Supplies"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Sugar cube pyramid by Artefacti via iStock <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26<\/a>) on Tuesday closed up +0.10 (+0.67%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26<\/a>) closed up +4.40 (+1.02%).<\/p>\n

Sugar prices settled higher on Tuesday amid an outlook for tighter global supplies. \u00a0StoneX on Tuesday predicted that the global sugar market will fall into a -550,000 MT deficit during the 2026\/27 season from a 2.3 MMT surplus in the 2025\/26 season.<\/p>\n

On Monday, Citigroup projected Brazil’s 2026\/27 sugar production at 39.50 MMT, well below Conab’s estimate of 43.95 MMT, citing mills’ actions in Brazil to allocate more sugarcane to ethanol production due to soaring gasoline prices. \u00a0Also, Citigroup said a potentially strong El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern this year could have “a significant impact” on sugar production in India and Thailand over the next 6 to 12 months. \u00a0<\/p>\n

On April 30, Unica reported that 2026\/27 Brazil Center-South sugar production in the first half of April fell -11.9% y\/y to 647 MT, with mills cutting the amount of cane crushed for sugar production to 32.9% from 44.7% last year. \u00a0On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, reported that 2026\/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y\/y to 29.259 million liters. \u00a0On April 21, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026\/27 sugar production at 42.5 MMT, down -3% y\/y, citing millers crushing more cane for ethanol than for sugar. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Sugar prices have found some support amid concerns about supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. \u00a0According to Covrig Analytics, the closure of the strait has curbed approximately 6% of the world’s sugar trade, constraining refined sugar output.<\/p>\n

Sugar prices were pressured last month when India’s Food Secretary said the government has no plans to ban sugar exports this year, easing concerns that it could divert more sugar to make ethanol following the Iran war disruption to crude oil supplies. \u00a0On February 13, India’s government approved an additional 500,000 MT of sugar for export for the 2025\/26 season, on top of the 1.5 MMT approved in November. \u00a0India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022\/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. \u00a0Meanwhile, the USDA on Thursday said it expects a 2026\/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. \u00a0India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.<\/p>\n

Signs of a smaller global sugar surplus are supportive for prices. \u00a0On April 21, Covrig Analytics cut its 2026\/27 global sugar surplus estimate to 800,000 MT from 1.4 MMT previously. \u00a0On April 20, sugar trader Czarnikow cut its 2026\/27 global sugar surplus estimate to 1.1 MMT from 3.4 MMT in February, and cut its 2025\/26 surplus estimate to 5.8 MT from 8.3 MMT. \u00a0<\/p>\n

On April 16, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. reported that India’s 2025-26 sugar production from Oct 1-Apr 15 was up +7.7% y\/y to 27.48 MMT. \u00a0On March 11, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) projected India’s 2025\/26 sugar production at 29.3 MMT, up 12% y\/y, below an earlier projection of 30.95 MMT. \u00a0The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports.<\/p>\n

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on February 27 reported a +1.22 MMT (million metric ton) sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25. \u00a0ISO said the surplus was driven by increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. \u00a0ISO reports a +3.0% y\/y rise in global sugar production to 181.3 million MMT in 2025-26. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on December 16, projected that global 2025\/26 sugar production would climb +4.6% y\/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025\/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y\/y to a record 177.921 MMT. \u00a0The USDA also forecast that 2025\/26 global sugar ending stocks would fall by -2.9% y\/y to 41.188 MMT. \u00a0The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025\/26 sugar production would rise by 2.3% y\/y to a record 44.7 MMT. \u00a0FAS also predicted that India’s 2025\/26 sugar production would increase by 25% y\/y to 35.25 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. \u00a0In addition, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025\/26 sugar production will increase by +2% y\/y to 10.25 MMT.
\u00a0<\/p>\n

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund<\/a> did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here<\/a>.<\/i> <\/div>\n

Fonte do Artigo <\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sugar cube pyramid by Artefacti via iStock July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) on Tuesday closed up +0.10 (+0.67%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) closed up +4.40 (+1.02%). Sugar prices settled higher on Tuesday amid an outlook for tighter global supplies. \u00a0StoneX on Tuesday predicted that the global sugar market will fall […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":130255,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","maa_idioma":"","maa_pais":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[5758,4777,7105,5972,11986,25189,35769],"class_list":["post-130254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brasil","tag-higher","tag-outlook","tag-prices","tag-push","tag-sugar","tag-supplies","tag-tighter"],"blocksy_meta":[],"yoast_head":"\nSugar Prices Push Higher Amid the Outlook for Tighter Supplies - Ubirat\u00e3 Online Not\u00edcias - A realidade ao seu alcance!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sugar cube pyramid by Artefacti via iStock July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) on Tuesday closed up +0.10 (+0.67%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/sugar-prices-push-higher-amid-the-outlook-for-tighter-supplies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sugar Prices Push Higher Amid the Outlook for Tighter Supplies\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sugar cube pyramid by Artefacti via iStock July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) on Tuesday closed up +0.10 (+0.67%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/sugar-prices-push-higher-amid-the-outlook-for-tighter-supplies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Ubirat\u00e3 Online Not\u00edcias - 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