{"id":130841,"date":"2026-05-15T23:03:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T02:03:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/jordan-walker-is-trending-up\/"},"modified":"2026-05-15T23:03:16","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T02:03:16","slug":"jordan-walker-is-trending-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/jordan-walker-is-trending-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Jordan Walker Is Trending Up"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

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Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Since the start of the year, I\u2019ve been watching Jordan Walker<\/a> mash the ball as I try to figure out something to say about it. As a card-carrying Walker booster \u2013 I\u2019ve got a Top 50 Trade Value ranking<\/a> to prove it \u2013 I\u2019m very willing to believe in Walker\u2019s promise. But as a sometime Cardinals fan \u2013 being a professional baseball writer makes fandom complicated \u2013 I\u2019m afraid of getting burned. Walker has already gone from one of the most heralded prospects in the game to one of its worst-performing full-time players. Now he\u2019s one of the best-performing players? Being a little skeptical is just a matter of self-preservation.<\/p>\n

Now that we\u2019re a month and a half into the season, though, I can\u2019t keep myself from investigating. Walker hasn\u2019t had stretches this productive since his rookie year. He hasn\u2019t had stretches where he\u2019s hit the ball on the ground this rarely as a major leaguer, period. He\u2019s been 14.5 runs above average offensively in 2026 \u2013 after being 13 runs below average<\/em> offensively for his entire career before now. If that isn\u2019t screaming for an article, I don\u2019t know what is.<\/p>\n

If you know two things about Walker, they\u2019re probably these: He swings hard, and he can\u2019t get the ball off the ground. That makes it easy to think through how he might improve: keep swinging hard and stop hitting it on the ground. When I designed the Squared-Up Explorer<\/a> for the FanGraphs Lab, Walker was actually one of my favorite examples to use. Look at where his best swings are, compared to another guy who swings very hard:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The bubble size represents frequency, and being further right means more squared-up contact. Before 2026, Walker squared up the ball most frequently on grounders, and he hit a ton of them. For his part, Judge isn\u2019t squaring the ball up every time he hits it or anything, but he\u2019s following a simple recipe. He swings really hard, he gets the ball in the air a lot, and then he profits. The harder you swing, the more valuable hitting the ball flush becomes; Judge doesn\u2019t need to hit it pure every time to clobber dingers at a historic rate. <\/p>\n

That\u2019s a common plan for sluggers who get the job done with raw power. Guys like Walker and Judge get so much value out of squaring the ball up in the air that they don\u2019t need to do it all that often to prosper. With the help of a little bit of algorithmic smoothing so that three years can fit on a single graph without too much clutter, you can see how Walker has mostly failed to launch, aside from an abbreviated 2024 season (178 plate appearances sandwiched around a three-month demotion to Triple-A):<\/p>\n

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Some of Walker\u2019s 2026 improvement can be directly attributed to correcting this long-time issue. As Daniel Epstein detailed<\/a> a month ago, Walker took a trip to Driveline this winter and worked on a mechanical flaw that he believed was holding him back. His back hip collapsed too frequently, preventing him from elevating the ball. The fix? Stop doing that, basically. It\u2019s more complicated than that, of course, but that\u2019s what it boils down to.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s entirely plausible that making that change is doing a lot of work for Walker, but frankly, I\u2019m not really a hitting mechanics guy. It\u2019s not that I don\u2019t believe in them \u2013 it\u2019s pretty clear that how you swing the bat matters. But I\u2019ve never been able to turn that into analytical insight, because hitters can swing a ton of different ways and still succeed. I\u2019m more of an outcomes guy. I used the Squared-Up Explorer to see how Walker is doing in 2026:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Wait, what?! That\u2019s just 2025 repeated. What the heck? Well, the reason they look so similar is because these smoothed lines remove the frequency bubbles. Walker\u2019s big change hasn\u2019t been about adjusting where he squares up the ball most often. It\u2019s been about prioritizing getting the ball in the air even if he doesn\u2019t catch it clean every time:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no getting around the fact that Walker\u2019s swing produces groundball rockets. But the problem with his elevated contact wasn\u2019t just that he didn\u2019t square it up frequently enough \u2013 it was also that he didn\u2019t hit the ball in the air at all. In 2025, a whopping 53% of his contact was hit at 10 degrees or lower, one of the worst marks in baseball. You can succeed as a slugger while doing that, but only if you do a lot of other things very well \u2013 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a> and James Wood<\/a> both hit a similar number of grounders, but they both got much more out of their fly ball contact than Walker.<\/p>\n

This year, Walker has left the company of Guerrero and started putting balls in the air at a clip that gives him more room for error (Wood is doing this too, which explains his impressive power output). Only 40% of his batted balls are hit at 10 degrees or lower, which is actually lower than the league average. Now, is he squaring up all of those balls? He is not \u2013 he\u2019s only squaring up 57% of his elevated contact, about 10 percentage points below league average. But that\u2019s much higher than the results he\u2019s managed before this year, and again, he swings really<\/em> hard.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a simplified way of thinking about the different types of contact Walker has made in his career:<\/p>\n

\n

Jordan Walker\u2019s Production on Batted Balls By Type (wOBA)<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Contact Type<\/th>\nNot Squared Up<\/th>\nSquared Up<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Ground<\/td>\n.252<\/td>\n.421<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Air<\/td>\n.305<\/td>\n.719<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Sometimes wOBA can be hard to wrap your head around. What about slugging percentage?<\/p>\n

\n

Jordan Walker\u2019s Production on Batted Balls By Type (SLG)<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Contact Type<\/th>\nNot Squared Up<\/th>\nSquared Up<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Ground<\/td>\n.307<\/td>\n.509<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Air<\/td>\n.432<\/td>\n1.289<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

That simple transition to hitting grounders a little less often, and hitting the ball on the nose a little more often when he gets it in the air, is worth nearly 100 points of slugging (on contact) on its own. It can\u2019t explain all of Walker\u2019s improvement, but it helps explain why he had never posted even average production on contact before this year and is suddenly a standout in that category.<\/p>\n

In fact, I\u2019ve been downplaying his improvement by using this framing. It\u2019s not just that Walker is getting the ball in the air more frequently, and it\u2019s not just that he\u2019s squaring it up more frequently when he hits it in the air; even his squared-up contact has gotten much better. Those numbers are career averages, but his bat speed has never been higher on balls he lifts, he\u2019s never hit the ball harder when he squares it up in the air, and he\u2019s never produced at a clip even approaching this year\u2019s mark. The 2026 version of Walker looks right at home next to the biggest-hitting sluggers in the game. Here\u2019s a list of the five most productive hitters in 2026 on balls that they square up in the air:<\/p>\n

\n

Top Hitters, Squared Up Elevated Contact, 2026<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/th>\nBat Speed<\/th>\nEV (mph)<\/th>\nwOBA<\/th>\nxwOBA<\/th>\nSLG<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Junior Caminero<\/a><\/td>\n79.3<\/td>\n105.1<\/td>\n1.283<\/td>\n1.083<\/td>\n2.304<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jordan Walker<\/td>\n78.6<\/td>\n104.4<\/td>\n1.059<\/td>\n1.039<\/td>\n1.903<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aaron Judge<\/a><\/td>\n76.8<\/td>\n104.5<\/td>\n1.029<\/td>\n1.047<\/td>\n1.821<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kyle Schwarber<\/a><\/td>\n77.4<\/td>\n103.1<\/td>\n1.025<\/td>\n.941<\/td>\n1.895<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oneil Cruz<\/a><\/td>\n79.4<\/td>\n105.5<\/td>\n.975<\/td>\n.994<\/td>\n1.629<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Walker Before \u201926<\/td>\n77.4<\/td>\n100.6<\/td>\n.629<\/td>\n.734<\/td>\n1.113<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

On raw physical tools alone, Walker obviously belongs on this list. He swings as hard as these dudes, and we\u2019re already restricting it to elevated contact that he made at least solid contact with. But he just wasn\u2019t truly tapping into his power. If you\u2019re wondering how that can happen after we already restrict it to squared-up contact, it\u2019s because \u201csquared up\u201d means hit at 80% or higher of the maximum theoretical velocity. That\u2019s a broad range. Walker\u2019s best contact is just better<\/em> than it used to be, in addition to being more frequent.<\/p>\n

How\u2019s he doing it? That back hip adjustment surely plays a part; his old mechanics clearly weren\u2019t working for him. But again, I\u2019m not really a mechanics guy, so I\u2019ll turn my focus elsewhere, towards the types of pitches he\u2019s unloading on. Walker has never seen fastballs at the top of the zone at a higher rate. He\u2019s already put 18 in play, nearly a career high \u2013 he notched 25 balls in play in 2023 in roughly triple the plate appearances. And he\u2019s elevated 14 of those 18, another career high. That\u2019s right: Walker has never lifted more high fastballs in a single season than he has this season, and it\u2019s May 13.<\/p>\n

Another major change: Walker is handling sliders very differently than he used to. His current plan doesn\u2019t seem particularly complex to me, but I absolutely love it. If you throw Walker a slider below the strike zone, he probably won\u2019t hit it. He\u2019s whiffing about three quarters of the time when he offers at those, and he still chases a decent amount. But if you throw him a slider in the zone, you might as well tell your outfielders to turn around and get moving, because Walker is going to try to deposit it in the seats. He\u2019s taking ferocious hacks against in-zone spin. He\u2019s lifting and pulling the ball at a career-best clip, and not by a narrow margin. Slower stuff is exactly what you want to pull \u2013 it\u2019s slower, so your swing tends to meet the ball further out in front and angled more to pull. Only Dalton Rushing<\/a> is doing more damage against in-zone breaking balls this year.<\/p>\n

The bottom line of all of this analysis is that Walker basically looks like the hitter scouts saw when he was one of the top prospects in the game before his 2023 debut. He\u2019s enormous. He swings preposterously hard. He swings and misses fairly often, as you\u2019d expect with such a big swing. He makes too much of his best contact on the ground, but when he does put it in the air, he\u2019s capable of hitting it a very long way. None of that is new, and none of that seems likely to change anytime soon.<\/p>\n

But that should add up to a good hitter! The boppers he shares the top of the swing speed leaderboard with all have a lot of the same flaws and a lot of the same strengths, and for the most part they\u2019re very good hitters. Walker wasn\u2019t struggling because he didn\u2019t have the tools to succeed. He was struggling despite those tools. No one who\u2019s watched Jordan Walker turn on a high fastball is surprised that he has 11 homers this year; they\u2019re surprised that he only had 11 in his last two big league seasons combined. <\/p>\n

That makes a forward-looking evaluation very difficult, and to be honest with you, I don\u2019t know what the future holds here. Walker has befuddled me for so long now that I\u2019m going to be very careful about making predictions. But I do feel comfortable saying this: Nothing Walker is doing right now looks particularly unsustainable. I don\u2019t mean that he\u2019ll keep posting a 169 wRC+ indefinitely \u2013 if you want to dig in, there\u2019s plenty to nitpick, and I think it\u2019s inarguable that he\u2019s on a heater at the moment. But in terms of process, what\u2019s not to like here? Plenty of guys who approach the game roughly like 2026 Walker are elite hitters. Would you be surprised if he carries a 140 wRC+ the rest of the way? I certainly wouldn\u2019t; that\u2019s a reasonable mark for a player who does this much damage when he connects and has a solid sense of the strike zone, even if that solid sense of the strike zone comes with plenty of whiffs.<\/p>\n

In fact, the only real blemish in Walker\u2019s 2026 season is one he can\u2019t fix yet: He hasn\u2019t done it for long enough. If he had played like this for the last three years, we wouldn\u2019t be wondering about whether this strange style could work; we\u2019d be talking about how many zeroes the Cardinals would be putting on a contract extension. New Walker? He\u2019s awesome. There\u2019s no argument. I\u2019m excited to see him try to keep it going while pitchers go from marveling at how a guy built like this can\u2019t put the ball in the air to feverishly plotting an escape from his reign of home run terror.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n


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Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Since the start of the year, I\u2019ve been watching Jordan Walker mash the ball as I try to figure out something to say about it. As a card-carrying Walker booster \u2013 I\u2019ve got a Top 50 Trade Value ranking to prove it \u2013 I\u2019m very willing to believe in Walker\u2019s promise. 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