<\/p>\n
Facing a battlefield stalemate in Ukraine and growing war fatigue among Russians, President Vladimir Putin<\/a><\/span> appears ready to try to change the narrative around the conflict.<\/p>\n He looks likely to sharply escalate the Russian aerial attacks on the Ukrainian capital in the hope it will shore up his sagging domestic approval ratings and persuade an increasingly pessimistic audience at home that Moscow is winning the war, now in its fifth year.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n Russia\u2019s warning<\/a><\/span> to carry out \u201cconsistent and systematic\u201d missile strikes on Kyiv, accompanied by a call for evacuating foreign embassies from the capital, signals Putin\u2019s intention to expand Russia\u2019s barrage despite the heavy costs and potential international outrage.<\/p>\n Massive drills<\/a><\/span> of Russia\u2019s nuclear forces earlier this month and a series of belligerent statements from Moscow warning Kyiv\u2019s European allies about possible retaliation for what the Kremlin cast as their involvement in Ukrainian drone attacks have underlined Putin\u2019s intention to up the ante.<\/p>\n After a series of gains last year, Russia\u2019s advances along the over 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line have ground to a near halt recently, and Ukraine\u2019s armed forces have launched successful counterstrikes and reclaimed some ground.<\/p>\n \u201cThe character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces, at least for now,\u201d the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a recent analysis. \u201cRussian forces\u2019 rates of advances are stagnating while Ukrainian forces are employing novel tactics and operational concepts in efforts to break out of positional warfare.\u201d<\/p>\n The battlefield gridlock undermines Putin\u2019s declared goal of quickly capturing the eastern Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control. Kyiv has rejected his demands to withdraw from the region as a condition for a ceasefire.<\/p>\n At the same time, Ukraine has significantly expanded its long-range strikes<\/a><\/span> on Russian energy facilities and arms factories, inflicting increasing damage.<\/p>\n Putin scaled down<\/a><\/span> the annual May 9 Victory Day parade, fearing Ukrainian drone strikes. Days later, a massive drone attack on Moscow\u2019s suburbs killed three and showed that even the densely protected capital isn\u2019t fully immune from assault, shattering Kremlin efforts to cast the conflict as something distant that doesn\u2019t affect ordinary Russians.<\/p>\n Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attacks were \u201csignificantly changing the situation \u2014 and, more broadly, the world\u2019s perception of Russia\u2019s war.\u201d<\/p>\n Acknowledging the growing threat of Ukraine\u2019s deep strikes, Russian lawmakers this week approved a bill that says the country\u2019s banks should bear the cost of installing drone-jamming systems on their premises, rather than rely on the military.<\/p>\n \u201cFrom Russia\u2019s perspective, these attacks are just going to get worse,\u201d said Thomas Withington of the Royal United Services Institute in London. He added that Ukraine\u2019s increasingly audacious drone attacks were \u201cexacting not only a political but an economic cost in Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n Russia\u2019s economy has stagnated as the initial boost from massive military spending has petered out. The government has raised taxes and increased domestic borrowing to keep the budget deficit under control. And even though the U.S. war in Iran has meant windfall oil revenues for Russia, fundamental economic challenges remain.<\/p>\n Putin is expected to play down the negative dynamics at next week\u2019s international economic forum in St. Petersburg, an annual event intended to showcase Russia\u2019s achievements.<\/p>\n Nigel Gould-Davies of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said in an analysis that \u201cwar-fueled high prices of capital, labor and goods, as well as rising taxes, have begun to depress the civilian sectors,\u201d resulting in \u201ca dual economy of overheated military output and civilian stagnation.\u201d<\/p>\n While Russia has relied on volunteer soldiers to fight the war, offering them comparatively high wages and other benefits, Gould-Davies argued that \u201cthere are signs that this incentive may no longer be working effectively, and that Russia has begun to lose more troops than it can recruit.\u201d<\/p>\n To sustain the war, the Kremlin will have to forcibly mobilize human and material resources, requiring it to \u201ccurtail the last remaining post-Soviet market freedoms, labor freedom, and freedom of movement,\u201d he said.<\/p>\nAs Russia\u2019s advance stalls, Ukraine boosts long-range strikes<\/h2>\n
The war is taking a toll on the Russian economy and morale<\/h2>\n