{"id":150257,"date":"2026-07-03T17:06:31","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T20:06:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/el-nino-is-strengthening-rapidly-forecasters-warn-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-your-weather\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T17:06:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T20:06:32","slug":"el-nino-is-strengthening-rapidly-forecasters-warn-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-your-weather","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/el-nino-is-strengthening-rapidly-forecasters-warn-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-your-weather\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o is ‘strengthening rapidly,’ forecasters warn. Here’s what it could mean for your weather."},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

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El Ni\u00f1o has formed in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to intensify in the coming months, meteorologists say.<\/p>\n

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday<\/a> that El Ni\u00f1o conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and could \u201cstrengthen rapidly\u201d.<\/p>\n

“El Ni\u00f1o conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event, as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.”<\/p>\n

It said latest data indicated a \u201crapid development\u201d into a strong El Ni\u00f1o event during July\u2013September 2026<\/p>\n

Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially confirmed<\/a> the arrival of El Ni\u00f1o, a prolonged period of warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which affects weather patterns across the globe.<\/p>\n

For months, weather officials had been warning that a strong El Ni\u00f1o would almost certainly develop this year, driven by warm ocean waters near the equator.<\/p>\n

What’s less certain is how strong this year’s El Ni\u00f1o will be. According to NOAA, there is a 63% chance between November 2026 and January 2027 of sea surface temperatures rising 2\u00b0C (or 3.6\u00b0F) or more above their historical averages \u2014 which forecasters would consider a very strong or “super” El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Such an event could saddle the southern half of the United States with a much cooler and wetter winter and ultimately fuel what could turn out to be the hottest year on record.<\/p>\n

“El Ni\u00f1o conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” United Nations Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres warned in a video statement<\/a> in June.<\/p>\n

Here’s what El Ni\u00f1o is \u2014 and how its rare “super” variant could wreak havoc come winter.<\/p>\n

Explaining El Ni\u00f1o<\/h2>\n

Normally, Pacific trade winds blow west across the equator, carrying warm South American water toward Asia. Cold water then “upwells” from the depths to replace the warmer surface water that’s been pushed away.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a natural climate cycle that disrupts this pattern. It’s triggered by weaker-than-usual trade winds \u2014 winds that end up allowing much of that warm water to flow back toward the west coast of the Americas.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, that warmer water forces the Pacific jet stream \u2014 a high-altitude air current that acts as a 7,000-mile “conveyor belt” pushing storms east across the Pacific toward North America \u2014 to move south of its usual path, altering weather patterns across the U.S. and the globe.<\/p>\n

La Ni\u00f1a is the exact opposite: stronger trade winds, colder water and a Pacific jet stream that moves north rather than south.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a happen roughly every two to seven years and last nine to 12 months<\/a>. El Ni\u00f1o generally arises more frequently than La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n

Weak, strong or ‘super’?<\/h2>\n

Meteorologists measure the strength of El Ni\u00f1o by how much the water temperature rises above average in a patch of the equatorial Pacific. The threshold for a weak El Ni\u00f1o is 0.5\u00b0C (0.9\u00b0F). The temperature is now just above that mark.<\/p>\n

But to become a very strong or “super El Ni\u00f1o,” the equatorial Pacific would ultimately need to heat up by 2\u00b0C (or 3.6\u00b0F). That’s a lot less common.<\/p>\n

If a “super El Ni\u00f1o” develops in 2026, it would be the first since 2015-2016 \u2014 one of the strongest on record, according to NOAA<\/a>. Others occurred<\/a> in 1997-1998, 1982-1983 and 1972-1973.<\/p>\n

How would a ‘super El Ni\u00f1o’ affect the weather?<\/h2>\n

It’s hard to say exactly. The 2015-2016 “super El Ni\u00f1o,” for example, didn’t deliver a wetter-than-average winter in Southern California \u2014 one of its typical trademarks. At the same time, climate change has made what we know about previous El Ni\u00f1os less helpful for informing what could come next, because the ocean is already significantly warmer today than it was back then.<\/p>\n

But some effects are relatively predictable.<\/p>\n

In early May, NOAA said<\/a> it was “very likely” 2026 will be one of the five hottest years on record. That’s without accounting for El Ni\u00f1o’s warming impact. A “super El Ni\u00f1o” could make 2026 or 2027 the hottest year on record, displacing 2024.<\/p>\n

Stronger El Ni\u00f1os also tend to flip the usual hurricane season equation, suppressing storms in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic while amplifying them in the central and eastern Pacific. More tropical threats to Hawaii and the Southwest U.S. are a possibility.<\/p>\n

Extremes of wetness and dryness \u2014 and heat and cold \u2014 are possible as well. Winter tends to get warmer in the northern half of North America and cooler and wetter in the southern half, especially in the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, drought could afflict the Caribbean, while India and Southeast Asia might see fewer summer monsoons.<\/p>\n

The economic impact of these changes could be massive. According to a 2023 study published in the journal Science<\/a>, the 1982-83 El Ni\u00f1o led to $4.1 trillion in global income losses, and its 1997-98 successor cut global income by $5.7 trillion.<\/p>\n

Either way, “stronger El Nin\u0303o events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely,” Michelle L’Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA, told USA Today<\/a>. “There is still enough uncertainty that seeing a weaker outcome would not be a surprise.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Mais Not\u00edcias<\/a><\/p>\n

Home Page – In\u00edcio<\/a><\/p>\n

Source link <\/a>
\nMore: The Global Track<\/a><\/p>\n

Corinthia Mes<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Ni\u00f1o has formed in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to intensify in the coming months, meteorologists say. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday that El Ni\u00f1o conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and could \u201cstrengthen rapidly\u201d. “El Ni\u00f1o conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":150258,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","maa_idioma":"","maa_pais":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[40158],"tags":[41884,22996,5578,16992,38378,20836,41887,41885,8856,7670,41886],"class_list":["post-150257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world","tag-el-nino","tag-forecasters","tag-heres","tag-nino","tag-noaa","tag-rapidly","tag-strengthening","tag-the-pacific-ocean","tag-warn","tag-weather","tag-world-meteorological-organization"],"blocksy_meta":[],"yoast_head":"\nEl Ni\u00f1o is 'strengthening rapidly,' forecasters warn. 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