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Bill ConnellyDec 19, 2025, 07:00 AM ET<\/span><\/p>\nClose<\/a><\/p>\nBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\nFour weeks ago in Missoula, a crowd of 27,340 watched Montana State play keep-away. Montana had just cut Montana State’s lead to 31-28 with seven minutes remaining in a game that had already seen five lead changes. With one more stop, the Grizzlies would get the ball back with a chance to win and keep their unbeaten record intact.<\/p>\nInstead, the visiting Bobcats moved the chains five times, including on fourth-and-1 and third-and-4, and kneeled out their first win at Montana in seven years, earning yearlong bragging rights in the process.<\/p>\nCorrection: monthlong<\/i> bragging rights, actually. Plus home-field advantage for the rematch. On Saturday in Bozeman, Montana State will host Montana at Bobcat Stadium in the FCS semifinals, live on ABC. It’s the first playoff edition of Brawl of the Wild. The winner will be a favorite to win its first national title since either 2001 (Montana) or 1984 (MSU). Ticket prices on the resale market have reached FIFA World Cup levels. It’s going to be a sight.<\/p>\nIt’s also going to be only one of two semifinals, obviously. On Saturday evening, Villanova and Illinois State will face off in Philadelphia in a match of two more programs chasing either past glory (Villanova won the 2009 title) or near glory (ISU lost in the 2014 season’s championship game). Illinois State’s round-of-16 upset of North Dakota State opened up the FCS playoff bracket in a way we haven’t seen in at least 15 years, and the Redbirds are two wins from fully capitalizing on the opportunity. But Villanova’s defense has reached a new level of dominance in the postseason, and the Wildcats are slight favorites.<\/p>\nAll four semifinalists rose to the occasion a week ago, but only two will make it to the finals in Nashville, Tennessee. Here’s what you need to know about a spectacular pair of FCS semifinals.<\/p>\n<\/p>\nUpdated projections<\/h2>\nISU and Villanova have come through in the playoffs. After finishing the regular season with a dud of a home loss to Southern Illinois, ISU has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 21.5 points per game in three road wins. (A win Saturday would make the Redbirds the first FCS team to win four playoff road games.) Villanova has overachieved by 27.2<\/i> points per game in its run to the semis. Both teams have found a new gear, and one of them might keep right on overachieving against projections for two more games. But on paper, the winner will be a solid underdog in the title game in Nashville.<\/p>\nHere are the updated SP+ projections for the four remaining teams:<\/p>\n
Four weeks ago in Missoula, a crowd of 27,340 watched Montana State play keep-away. Montana had just cut Montana State’s lead to 31-28 with seven minutes remaining in a game that had already seen five lead changes. With one more stop, the Grizzlies would get the ball back with a chance to win and keep their unbeaten record intact.<\/p>\n
Instead, the visiting Bobcats moved the chains five times, including on fourth-and-1 and third-and-4, and kneeled out their first win at Montana in seven years, earning yearlong bragging rights in the process.<\/p>\n
Correction: monthlong<\/i> bragging rights, actually. Plus home-field advantage for the rematch. On Saturday in Bozeman, Montana State will host Montana at Bobcat Stadium in the FCS semifinals, live on ABC. It’s the first playoff edition of Brawl of the Wild. The winner will be a favorite to win its first national title since either 2001 (Montana) or 1984 (MSU). Ticket prices on the resale market have reached FIFA World Cup levels. It’s going to be a sight.<\/p>\n
It’s also going to be only one of two semifinals, obviously. On Saturday evening, Villanova and Illinois State will face off in Philadelphia in a match of two more programs chasing either past glory (Villanova won the 2009 title) or near glory (ISU lost in the 2014 season’s championship game). Illinois State’s round-of-16 upset of North Dakota State opened up the FCS playoff bracket in a way we haven’t seen in at least 15 years, and the Redbirds are two wins from fully capitalizing on the opportunity. But Villanova’s defense has reached a new level of dominance in the postseason, and the Wildcats are slight favorites.<\/p>\n
All four semifinalists rose to the occasion a week ago, but only two will make it to the finals in Nashville, Tennessee. Here’s what you need to know about a spectacular pair of FCS semifinals.<\/p>\n
ISU and Villanova have come through in the playoffs. After finishing the regular season with a dud of a home loss to Southern Illinois, ISU has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 21.5 points per game in three road wins. (A win Saturday would make the Redbirds the first FCS team to win four playoff road games.) Villanova has overachieved by 27.2<\/i> points per game in its run to the semis. Both teams have found a new gear, and one of them might keep right on overachieving against projections for two more games. But on paper, the winner will be a solid underdog in the title game in Nashville.<\/p>\n
Here are the updated SP+ projections for the four remaining teams:<\/p>\n
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