{"id":81965,"date":"2026-01-25T03:04:30","date_gmt":"2026-01-25T06:04:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/legacy-medias-risky-bet\/"},"modified":"2026-01-25T03:04:38","modified_gmt":"2026-01-25T06:04:38","slug":"legacy-medias-risky-bet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/legacy-medias-risky-bet\/","title":{"rendered":"Legacy Media\u2019s Risky Bet"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Kalshi prediction market odds of Donald Trump buying Greenland are presented on CNN. (Screen grab via Snapstream\/CNN)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Did you hear this week that <\/span>Amazon<\/strong><\/span> billionaire <\/span>Jeff Bezos<\/strong><\/span> advised Gen Z entrepreneurs to start their careers at real-world jobs like <\/span>McDonald\u2019s<\/strong><\/span> or <\/span>Palantir<\/strong><\/span> before launching a business?<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Or that the <\/span>Justice Department<\/strong><\/span> under <\/span>Donald Trump<\/strong><\/span> was charging <\/span>Don Lemon<\/strong><\/span> under the Ku Klux Klan Act for allegedly inciting a church raid in <\/span>Minnesota<\/strong><\/span>?<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Or that the <\/span>U.S.<\/strong><\/span> and <\/span>Denmark<\/strong><\/span> had quietly established a working group for \u201ctechnical talks\u201d around<\/span> <\/strong><\/span>Trump\u2019s foolish attempt to take <\/span>Greenland<\/strong><\/span>?<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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All three claims circulated widely on social media after being promoted by <\/span>Polymarket<\/strong><\/span> and <\/span>Kalshi<\/strong><\/span>\u2014two gambling websites that refer to themselves as \u201cprediction markets.\u201d They are just a sampling of the false or misleading claims posted by platforms now taking billions of dollars in wagers on virtually any conceivable news or sports outcome.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cNope,\u201d Bezos wrote Thursday in response to the post attributing the comments to him. \u201cNot sure why Polymarket made this up.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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It would be easy to dismiss this kind of misinformation as junk content from modern-day bookies trying to lure the gullible into placing a bet. But these pay-to-play platforms have become deeply embedded in the mainstream media ecosystem\u2014gaining legitimacy and reach through partnerships with legacy outlets.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In recent months, <\/span>CNN<\/strong><\/span> and <\/span>CNBC<\/strong><\/span> have both struck deals with Kalshi to feature its betting odds as part of their coverage, similar to how networks incorporate polling data or economic indicators into segments. <\/span>Dow Jones<\/strong><\/span>, the parent company of <\/span>The Wall Street Journal<\/strong><\/span>, <\/span>Barron\u2019s<\/strong><\/span>, and <\/span>MarketWatch<\/strong><\/span>, has partnered with Polymarket, with chief executive <\/span>Almar Latour<\/strong><\/span> lauding its supposed value as \u201ca rapidly growing source of real-time insight into collective beliefs about future events.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Even the <\/span>Jay Penske<\/strong><\/span>-owned <\/span>Golden Globes<\/strong><\/span> joined in, integrating Polymarket betting data into this month\u2019s broadcast with live on-screen odds predicting award winners\u2014what Polymarket founder <\/span>Shayne Coplan<\/strong><\/span> described as \u201cthe single most mainstream prediction market integration to date.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But unlike public opinion polls\u2014which, for all their flaws, rely on scientific sampling and transparent methodologies\u2014prediction markets are not measures of broad sentiment or proxies for voter intention. At best, they reflect the behavior of a narrow group of people motivated enough to wager money. At their worst, they are ripe for manipulation by political operatives or foreign actors with both the means and the incentive to move gambling lines in their favor.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Notably, most news organizations did not include prediction market odds in their coverage prior to striking what are likely lucrative deals with companies like Kalshi and Polymarket. That suggests they did not actually find the data to be very informative for viewers prior to inking fruitful agreements.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Indeed, it appears that legacy media companies are pursuing these partnerships less out of editorial conviction than financial necessity. As advertising revenues continue to erode and the linear television business declines, outlets like CNN and CNBC are under mounting pressure to identify new, nontraditional revenue streams. The terms of the partnerships between Kalshi and CNN and CNBC weren’t publicly disclosed, but money is changing hands in both deals, <\/span>Business Insider\u2019s James Faris<\/strong><\/span> <\/span>reported<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cWe believe in data as a strong complement to the news,\u201d Kalshi spokesperson <\/span>Elisabeth Diana<\/strong><\/span> told <\/span>Status<\/em><\/span> in a statement. \u201cSometimes (rarely) when moving fast, we rely on sources that aren\u2019t accurate. There is a stark difference between getting, say, three posts wrong out of the hundreds we put out, versus blatantly and chaotically making up news for \u2018fun.\u2019\u201d A Polymarket spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But as prediction market data is woven into mainstream news coverage, it normalizes the act of gambling itself. When respected outlets repeatedly showcase betting odds, they implicitly legitimize wagering, risking pulling more people into gambling behavior. Recent <\/span>studies<\/a><\/span> have found a surge of gambling addition in the wake of legalized sports betting.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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And there\u2019s other reason for concern. U.S. intelligence agencies have long warned about foreign efforts to influence American public opinion. Imagine a scenario in which a well-funded actor quietly funnels millions in crypto into a prediction market to spike the odds of Trump\u2019s attempted Greenland takeover\u2014only to have a major cable network report that movement as a meaningful signal. The effect could create a feedback loop: money moves the market, the market is credibly reported by news outlets, and the news moves public perception\u2014and potentially reality itself.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cPrediction markets offer just one source of data that journalists can use in telling a story,\u201d a CNN spokesperson told <\/span>Status<\/em><\/span>. \u201cWhen used, it complements other reporting and data sources, such as polling. It is not a replacement for other sources and has no impact on editorial judgment.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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News organizations have long been criticized for obsessing over the political \u201chorse race\u201d\u2014who\u2019s up and who\u2019s down\u2014at the expense of substantive reporting on issues that actually affect people\u2019s lives. Prediction markets threaten to supercharge that tendency, offering a constant drip of price fluctuations that look authoritative but often mean very little. Audiences already skeptical of polls may struggle to distinguish speculative trading prices from legitimate survey data.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cPolymarket + X = the internet\u2019s ultimate truth machine,\u201d the company absurdly boasted on <\/span>Elon Musk\u2019s <\/strong><\/span>platform.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The fact that political gambling exists is not a reason itself for news organizations to legitimize it in coverage. Prediction markets may be entertaining and even lucrative ventures but they are not journalism. And the more news outlets pretend otherwise, the more they risk becoming part of the casino themselves.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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