{"id":83288,"date":"2026-01-30T01:14:28","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T04:14:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/sacramento-state-hornets-vs-montana-state-bobcats-prediction-pick-for-ncaam-on-thursday-1-29-26\/"},"modified":"2026-01-30T01:14:30","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T04:14:30","slug":"sacramento-state-hornets-vs-montana-state-bobcats-prediction-pick-for-ncaam-on-thursday-1-29-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/sacramento-state-hornets-vs-montana-state-bobcats-prediction-pick-for-ncaam-on-thursday-1-29-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Sacramento State Hornets vs. Montana State Bobcats prediction, pick for NCAAM on Thursday 1\/29\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight\u2019s college basketball game between the Sacramento State Hornets and the Montana State Bobcats.<\/p>\n

\n

Montana State walks into Sacramento sitting 13\u20138 and 7\u20131 in Big Sky play, with a real chance to keep pressure on the league\u2019s top rung. Sacramento State is 6\u201313 and 2\u20135, but this is exactly the kind of spot where their season has had teeth, because the home\/road split is night and day. Montana State just won 91\u201388 at Weber State, and that kind of road shot-making is why this group keeps showing up in tight finishes. The number is Sacramento State +4.5, and the handicap starts with whether the Hornets can drag the game into their preferred chaos without donating empty trips. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight\u2019s college basketball game between the Sacramento State Hornets<\/a> and the Montana State Bobcats<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s how I\u2019ll play it. I\u2019ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on\u00a0DraftKings Network<\/strong>. Follow my handle @dansby_edits<\/a><\/strong> for more betting plays.<\/p>\n

The shape is clean: Montana State is slower by profile at 69.3 possessions per game, while Sacramento State runs hotter at 74.6. Montana State\u2019s attack is built on shot quality and spacing volume, with a 55.6% eFG and a massive 45.9% three-point attempt rate, plus strong ball security at 13.4% turnovers. Sacramento State\u2019s offense is the opposite kind of bet: the efficiency is volatile, but the foul pressure is real, with an 0.396 FT\/FGA rate that sits near the top of the country. That contrast is the whole game. Montana State wants clean threes and tidy possessions. Sacramento State wants whistles, a set defense, and a scoreboard that keeps moving even when the jumper goes cold.<\/p>\n

Montana State\u2019s scoring is balanced enough to survive a road whistle, and it\u2019s why laying points would have been tempting. Patrick McMahon (G) gives them the steady diet, sitting at 14.3 points per game on 48.3% shooting. Jed Miller (G) is the connective piece, at 13.2 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, and he keeps their offense from becoming one-note. Davian Brown (G) supplies the third scorer at 12.6 per game, so Sacramento State can\u2019t just load one matchup and call it a night. On the other side, Sacramento State\u2019s trio is legit and it fits the foul-first identity. Mikey Williams (G) is at 16.8 points and 4.5 assists per game, and he\u2019s the guy who can keep a game glued together possession-to-possession. Prophet Johnson (G) brings the two-way strain with 16.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. Jeremiah Cherry (F) adds another real body at 15.5 points and 8.2 boards per game, which matters against a team that wants to win the glass quietly.<\/p>\n

Montana State vs. Sacramento State<\/a> pick, best bet<\/h3>\n

Sacramento State is 6\u20131 at home and 0\u201312 away, so the building clearly changes their offense and their resistance. The clearest cashable lever is free points: they already live at that 0.396 FT\/FGA rate, and their team free-throw shooting sits in the high-70s range. If the whistle shows up early, Montana State\u2019s spacing edge stops feeling like separation and starts feeling like a one-possession game all night. And Sacramento State doesn\u2019t need a perfect shooting night to justify +4.5; they need one \u201chot segment\u201d from deep to keep Montana State from ever building margin. You saw the clean version against Northern Arizona, where the Hornets hit eleven threes and went 18-of-20 at the line, which is exactly how a plus-points ticket ages well.<\/p>\n

The refutation is why I\u2019m taking points, not getting cute with anything bigger. Sacramento State\u2019s shooting profile can still betray them, and the season-long three-point percentage has been rough enough to invite droughts. Montana State\u2019s offense is also built to travel, because it doesn\u2019t beat itself, and it can win the possession game with low turnovers and high-quality threes. That\u2019s the favorite\u2019s win script, and it\u2019s real. But +4.5 is paying for the home split and the foul-line leverage, and I\u2019d rather be paid for volatility than lay points into a free-throw game.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Sacramento State +4.5. I\u2019ve got Montana State 78, Sacramento State 75.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Sacramento State +4.5 (-115) vs. Montana State<\/a><\/h5>\n

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here<\/a>!<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Source link <\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight\u2019s college basketball game between the Sacramento State Hornets and the Montana State Bobcats. Montana State walks into Sacramento sitting 13\u20138 and 7\u20131 in Big Sky play, with a real chance to keep pressure on the league\u2019s top rung. Sacramento State is 6\u201313 and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":83289,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","maa_idioma":"","maa_pais":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[16496,5107,16495,16497,5957,5217,6635,4475,7817],"class_list":["post-83288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ubirata","tag-bobcats","tag-hornets","tag-montana","tag-ncaam","tag-pick","tag-prediction","tag-sacramento","tag-state","tag-thursday"],"blocksy_meta":[],"yoast_head":"\nSacramento State Hornets vs. Montana State Bobcats prediction, pick for NCAAM on Thursday 1\/29\/26 - Ubirat\u00e3 Online Not\u00edcias - A realidade ao seu alcance!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight\u2019s college basketball game between the Sacramento State Hornets and the Montana\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/sacramento-state-hornets-vs-montana-state-bobcats-prediction-pick-for-ncaam-on-thursday-1-29-26\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sacramento State Hornets vs. Montana State Bobcats prediction, pick for NCAAM on Thursday 1\/29\/26\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight\u2019s college basketball game between the Sacramento State Hornets and the Montana\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/sacramento-state-hornets-vs-montana-state-bobcats-prediction-pick-for-ncaam-on-thursday-1-29-26\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Ubirat\u00e3 Online Not\u00edcias - 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