{"id":96294,"date":"2026-03-20T22:57:49","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T01:57:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/march-madness-odds-predictions-picks-best-bets-for-fridays-first-round-games-including-kansas-cal-baptist\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T22:57:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-21T01:57:52","slug":"march-madness-odds-predictions-picks-best-bets-for-fridays-first-round-games-including-kansas-cal-baptist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ubirataonline.com.br\/en\/march-madness-odds-predictions-picks-best-bets-for-fridays-first-round-games-including-kansas-cal-baptist\/","title":{"rendered":"March Madness odds, predictions, picks: Best bets for Friday’s first-round games, including Kansas-Cal Baptist"},"content":{"rendered":"


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The 2026 NCAA tournament<\/a> began on Tuesday night with the First Four<\/a> matchups in Dayton, Ohio, and continues for the next several weeks. With an estimated $3.3 billion wagered on March Madness<\/a> (men’s and women’s tournaments combined), tourney time is one of the biggest betting events of the year.<\/p>\n

Be sure to check out our March Madness betting guide<\/a>, which contains all of our bracket and betting content.<\/p>\n

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The NCAA tournament is all about volume, and we have 16 more first-round games to study \u2014 and potentially wager on \u2014 for Friday. Our college basketball handicappers \u2014 Corbie Craig, Matt Jacob, Matt Russell and Frank Schwab \u2014 are here to give their favorite wagers on every game.<\/p>\n

Odds courtesy of <\/em>BetMGM<\/em><\/a>. This file will be updated as more best bets come in.<\/em><\/p>\n

East region<\/h2>\n

(13) Cal Baptist vs. (4) Kansas (-14.5, 136.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Craig<\/strong>: Cal Baptist has been one of the more entertaining mid-majors this season, largely thanks to star point guard Dominique Daniels Jr., who has posted some video-game numbers all year, including a 47-point explosion in conference play. The Lancers\u2019 offense often runs entirely through his ability to create off the dribble. The problem in this matchup is the physical gap.<\/p>\n

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Kansas can throw multiple long, switchable guards at Daniels Jr., starting with Melvin Council Jr., which makes life much harder in the pick-and-roll game that Cal Baptist relies on. When you combine that with Kansas\u2019 size advantage across the rest of the floor, it becomes difficult to see the Lancers generating efficient looks consistently.<\/p>\n

After a disappointing showing in the Big 12 tournament, Kansas also feels like a team in need of a reset. First-round tournament games often become statement spots for power programs looking to regain rhythm, and this sets up as a potential get-right opportunity. If Daniels Jr. gets bottled up even moderately, Cal Baptist\u2019s offense doesn\u2019t have many secondary paths. With Kansas motivated and possessing the defensive personnel to neutralize the Lancers\u2019 engine, I\u2019m comfortable laying the points here.<\/p>\n

Pick: Kansas -14.5<\/strong><\/p>\n

(15) Furman vs. (2) UConn (-20.5, 136.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

UConn looked like a title contender for the first half of the season, so it\u2019s hard to figure out what happened when it lost four of its last 11, including bad defeats to Creighton and Marquette and a 20-point loss to St. John\u2019s in the Big East title game. Furman isn\u2019t great, but it has rare size for a small-conference team (fifth in the nation in average height according to KenPom<\/a>). That helps. Furman doesn\u2019t shoot 3s well, which isn\u2019t great when taking a big underdog, but we\u2019re just hoping the Paladins can keep it within 20.<\/p>\n

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South region<\/h2>\n

(9) Iowa (-2.5, 129.5) vs. (8) Clemson<\/strong><\/p>\n

Schwab: <\/strong>Iowa really needed to see someone other than a Big Ten opponent. The Hawkeyes were a very disappointing 3-7 down the stretch. But it\u2019s a team that was 31st nationally on offense and 30th defensively at KenPom.com<\/a>, with a strong point guard with tournament experience in Bennett Stirtz. Clemson was bad down the stretch too, finishing 4-6. That\u2019s what you get with teams this far down in the seeding sometimes. I\u2019ll trust Iowa to hit some shots and get a win.<\/p>\n

Bet: Iowa -2.5<\/strong><\/p>\n

West region<\/h2>\n

(9) Utah State (-1.5, 146.5) vs. (8) Villanova<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jacob: <\/strong>The Mountain West Conference was hardly a juggernaut this season, as evidenced by the fact that the league received just one NCAA tournament bid: automatic qualifier Utah State.<\/p>\n

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The Aggies, though, are legit \u2014 and that is why the selection committee rewarded the Mountain West regular season and tournament champs with a No. 9 seed. And why the betting market has Utah State as a slight favorite over a No. 8 seed.<\/p>\n

Utah State did drop its final three regular season road games \u2014 including ugly losses at San Diego State (89-72) and UNLV (92-65). But the Aggies avenged all three defeats in the conference tournament, crushing UNLV (80-60), Nevada (79-66) and San Diego State (73-62).<\/p>\n

[Schwab’s picks by region: <\/strong>East<\/strong><\/a> | <\/strong>South<\/strong><\/a> | <\/strong>Midwest<\/strong><\/a> | <\/strong>West<\/strong><\/a>]<\/strong><\/p>\n

Admittedly, Utah State\u2019s nonconference schedule was lacking. Its two most notable opponents were VCU (80-77 neutral-site win) and South Florida (74-61 road loss). That aside, the Aggies are top 30 in both the KenPom (30th) and NCAA Net (26th) rankings; Villanova is 33rd and 36th respectively.<\/p>\n

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The Wildcats had a strong first season under new head coach Kevin Willard. But aside from a 76-66 overtime win over Wisconsin on a neutral court back in December, Villanova doesn\u2019t have a signature victory. It also doesn\u2019t have the firepower to hang with a well-rounded Utah State squad that averages 82.5 PPG and makes nearly 50% of its shots.<\/p>\n

Bet: Utah State -1.5<\/strong><\/p>\n

(15) Queens vs. (2) Purdue (-25.5, 163.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Schwab: <\/strong>This line opened at -22.5 or -23.5 and moved toward the favorite. As we\u2019ve seen with other matchups with the top teams, early bettors clearly believe it will be a very chalky tournament again. Purdue has the most efficient offense in college basketball and Queens is 322nd in defense, via KenPom. This one could get ugly.<\/p>\n

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Bet: Purdue -25.5<\/strong><\/p>\n

(10) Missouri vs. (7) Miami (FL) (-2.5, 147.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jacob: <\/strong>I\u2019m not exactly sure what Missouri did to warrant an at-large berth to the Big Dance.<\/p>\n

By my count, the Tigers had five impressive victories. Two were back-to-back upsets of defending national champion and current No. 1 seed Florida (76-74 at home) and Kentucky (73-68 on the road). Missouri later eked out upsets over Texas A&M (86-85 on the road), Vanderbilt (81-80 at home) and Tennessee (73-69 at home).<\/p>\n

On the flip side, the Tigers lost twice to Arkansas and got spanked at Oklahoma (80-64) after narrowly getting past the Sooners at home (88-87 in overtime). They also were completely filleted by Kansas (80-60) and Illinois (91-48) on neutral courts, as well as Alabama (90-64 road) and Texas (85-68 home).<\/p>\n

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Additionally, Missouri went one-and-done in the SEC tournament, as Kentucky got revenge with a 78-72 win. That capped a 13-game stretch in which the Tigers\u2019 opponents averaged 79.9 PPG, with 10 of those foes tallying at least 78 points. Translation: Missouri\u2019s defense has been an abomination of late.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Miami went 9-3 to close the regular season \u2014 and the three losses were by margins of 3, 3 and 1 point. The Hurricanes then upset Louisville in the first round of the ACC tournament before bowing out against Virginia.<\/p>\n

True, Miami lost 82-68 to Florida on a neutral court six weeks before Missouri (barely) upset the Gators. But look at the results of two other common opponents: The Canes thumped Ole Miss 75-66 and Notre Dame 81-69, both on the road. Mizzou traveled to both schools and fell 76-69 at Ole Miss and 76-71 at Notre Dame.<\/p>\n

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Bet: Miami (FL) -2.5<\/strong><\/p>\n

Midwest region<\/h2>\n

(10) Santa Clara vs. (7) Kentucky (-3.5, 160.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Schwab: <\/strong>All season, Kentucky has had to hear about having a $22 million roster, which is the highest mark in college basketball. The Wildcats have been disappointing all season, including a 4-6 finish. The SEC is tough, but Kentucky deserved its No. 7 seed. Santa Clara has talent, too, and a recognizable coach in former NC State lead man Herb Sendek. Casual bettors might see Kentucky, one of the biggest name brands in the sport, and take the Wildcats over the third-best team in the WCC. Santa Clara is fully capable of winning this game straight up.<\/p>\n

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Bet: Santa Clara +3.5<\/strong><\/p>\n

(14) Wright State vs. (3) Virginia (-18.5, 145.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Schwab: <\/strong>Virginia showed in a competitive 74-70 loss against Duke at the ACC tournament that it can hang with anyone. In 2026, the Cavaliers are 18-3 with two losses to Duke and one to North Carolina when it had Caleb Wilson. Wright State isn\u2019t particularly impressive in any way, and the gap here seems wide.<\/p>\n

Bet: Virginia -18.5<\/strong><\/p>\n

(15) Tennessee State vs. (2) Iowa State (-24.5, 149.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Schwab: <\/strong>Inflation is happening in NCAA tournament betting. There were only two 20-point favorites among No. 2 seeds over the last four tournaments, via Matt Eisenberg\u2019s tournament guide<\/a>. This year, all four No. 2 seeds are at least 20-point favorites.<\/p>\n

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The dominance of the best teams in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament<\/a> the past few years was going to affect spreads, and No. 2 seeds are 9-3 ATS the last three tournaments. Maybe you buy that the gap between the top and bottom of the bracket is becoming completely insurmountable, but there is a tax to be paid to take the teams on the top two lines this year. Some of these underdogs have to cover the inflated lines, right?<\/p>\n

Bet: Tennessee State +24.5<\/strong><\/p>\n

(13) Hofstra vs. (4) Alabama (-11.5, 158.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jacob: <\/strong>It\u2019s difficult for bettors to trust Alabama in the NCAA tournament \u2014 particularly in the early going. Going back to 2012, the school is 12-7 straight-up and 9-9-1 ATS in the Big Dance \u2014 including 5-1 SU but only 2-4 ATS in the first round.<\/p>\n

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The reason the Crimson Tide are untrustworthy? They treat defense like it\u2019s optional. In the last four NCAA tournaments, first-round opponents Robert Morris (81 points), College of Charleston (96 points), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (75 points) and Notre Dame (78 points) have scored at will against Alabama.<\/p>\n

Staying true to their brand, the Tide were all offense, little defense again this season: They led the nation in scoring (91.7 points per game) and ranked 352nd out of 361 teams in points allowed (83.5 per game).<\/p>\n

So it seems there are only two logical approaches to attacking Alabama\u2019s game against Hofstra on Friday: Take the points or pass. I\u2019m doing neither, simply because I don\u2019t believe Hofstra can exploit the Tide\u2019s glaring weakness.<\/p>\n

The Pride average 75.6 PPG and shoot just 44.2% from the field. The counterargument, of course, is that Hofstra\u2019s defensive numbers are strong \u2014 it ranks 19th nationally in points allowed (66.1) and fourth in field-goal defense (38.7%). Problem is, the Pride haven\u2019t come close to seeing an offense as lethal as Alabama\u2019s.<\/p>\n

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What\u2019s more, Hofstra\u2019s adjusted defensive efficiency rating per KenPom (95th) is far worse than Alabama\u2019s (67th).<\/p>\n

As the saying goes, styles make fights. And in this case, I see Alabama\u2019s style overwhelming Hofstra.<\/p>\n

Bet: Alabama -12.5<\/strong><\/p>\n

(11) Miami (Ohio) vs. (6) Tennessee (-10.5, 148.5)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Russell<\/strong>: Karma\u2019s a quick-exit for SMU, which might have been less-than-truthful with the selection committee about the health and availability of B.J. Edwards, as the chair, Keith Gill, said the expectation of his return \u201cto 100% health\u201d was a crucial element to the Mustangs\u2019 inclusion in the NCAA Tournament.<\/p>\n

SMU\u2019s best perimeter defender and jack-of-all-trades in their 3-guard lineup was in street clothes, watching as Miami took a record number of threes in a First Four game, making 16 of them. Without Edwards, SMU wasn\u2019t on the level of even their modest 91st-ranked defensive efficiency (via KenPom), which still would have been the best defense the Redhawks have faced all season, with the previous honor going to Bowling Green.<\/p>\n

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Tennessee\u2019s defense is having a down year.<\/p>\n

Instead of its annual top-five rating, the Vols are \u201conly\u201d 15th.<\/p>\n

Without an opponent to discuss, Tennessee\u2019s fallen under the radar since Selection Sunday, but a 6-seed sure seems low for a team 16th overall in KenPom, but Rick Barnes\u2019 team will be prepared to run the Redhawks off the line without fouling, and likely out of the gym without much trouble.<\/p>\n

Bet: Tennessee -10.5<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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