American Madison Keys is coming off one of the biggest upsets at Wimbledon in 2026, as she beat 2025 Wimbledon runner-up Amanda Anisimova in the third round to advance to the fourth round for the third time in the last four years.
Keys is a former Grand Slam winner (she won the 2025 Australian Open), and she’s been in this spot before at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, reaching the quarterfinals in 2023 and 2015.
Now, Keys is favored against No. 9-ranked Linda Noskova, who has won back-to-back matches in three sets to reach the fourth round for the second year in a row at Wimbledon.
Noskova has just one quarterfinal appearance at a Grand Slam in her career, but can she pull off the upset in this match?
Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s history at Wimbledon and my prediction for Monday’s showdown.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Moneyline
Total
The 2025 Australian Open champion, Keys has multiple quarterfinal appearances at Wimbledon and is back in the fourth round for the fourth time in her last five runs at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.
Keys needed three sets to get past Kayla Day in Round 1, but she then made quick work of Katie Swan (6-1, 6-4) in Round 2. Then, she battled No. 6-ranked player Amanda Anisimova (the runner-up at Wimbledon in 2025) and knocked her off in three sets despite losing the first one 3-6.
Even though Keys is the lower-ranked player in this match, she’s favored against Noskova in their first-ever meeting.
The No. 9-ranked player at Wimbledon, Noskova knocked off No. 17-ranked Sorana Cirstea in the third round to advance to the fourth round for the second year in a row.
Noskova made the fourth round at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in 2025, but she’s coming off a disappointing showing at Roland Garros, losing in the first round. She’s only made one quarterfinal appearance at a Grand Slam in her career (the 2024 Australian Open).
Between these two players, they have played six matches at Wimbledon in 2026 and four of them have gone the distance (three sets).
So, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a similar outcome on Monday with a trip to the quarterfinals on the line.
Keys being favored is a sign of respect after she knocked off Anisimova, and she does have more experience in her career, reaching the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam 12 different times.
Meanwhile, Noskova needed 27 and 30 games in her last two matches, going to a tiebreak in Round 3 to advance.
Both of these players win over 76 percent of their service games, so this should be a back-and-forth battle on Monday morning.
Pick: OVER 22.5 Games (-130 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Corinthia Mes
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