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THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU and BACKROOMS – Box Office Theory
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The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale (in order of release):
- Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu (May 22 / Disney & Lucasfilm)
- In the final week before hitting cinemas, tracking continues to align mostly with recent expectations with another small uptick pushing odds of an $80 million-plus domestic three-day bow (~$95 million-plus four-day) slightly higher. Many early social media reactions from critics’ screenings are observably positive on the whole, but next week’s full embargo lift will offer a more significant checkpoint. Ultimately, family appeal and walk-up potential over the Memorial Day frame remain sizable variables beyond critics and online sentiment.
- Backrooms (May 29 / A24)
- Barring any late surprises, the liminal horror game adaptation is making a strong case to rival or exceed Alex Garland’s Civil War ($25.7 million) as A24’s best-ever domestic opening. A lot can happen in two weeks, and the combination of fans with the studio’s own avid following makes for warranted caution, but momentum is accelerating in a great way at this stage two weeks out.
- Disclosure Day (June 12 / Universal)
- Steven Spielberg returns to the summer tentpole platform with his latest original sci-fi pic led by Emily Blunt, Josh O’Connor, and Colman Domingo.
- Blunt, in particular, could be a significant draw with such a strong resumé of recent hits, most notably the Quiet Place films, her Oscar-nominated performance in Oppenheimer, and the currently-in-release blockbuster, The Devil Wears Prada 2, among many others.
- Marketing and the concept of the film itself position this as the iconic filmmaker’s most commercially accessible release for multiple demographics since his 2018 adaptation of Ready Player One.
- Pre-release social and trailer trends offer encouraging signals before pre-sales begin on May 27. That said, online chatter is expected to generate high volume with such a widely renowned name like Spielberg involved. Casual moviegoers will be the driving factor in the long run.
- Original movies based on little or no source material tend to perform within a certain range of opening thresholds, though the Spielberg and Blunt factors could elevate this one slightly. A full premium screen spread, including IMAX, will also add to box office ceilings.
- Ultimately, marketing will need to continue winning over the non-regular moviegoing crowd over the next month, while word of mouth from there will decide how leggy the film can potentially become as it faces minimal direct competition for adult audiences until Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey drops five weeks later.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 5/14/26
NOTE: Beginning soon, all forecast charts will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Release Date | Title | Distributor | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
5/13/2026 | Top Gun (40th Anniversary) | Paramount Pictures | $750,000 | $1,500,000 | $1,000,000 ($1,800,000 5-day) | $1,900,000 | $3,800,000 | $2,500,000 |
5/13/2026 | Top Gun: Maverick (2026 Re-Issue) | Paramount Pictures | $500,000 | $1,000,000 | $750,000 ($1,300,000 5-day) | $1,250,000 | $2,500,000 | $1,900,000 |
5/15/2026 | In the Grey | Black Bear | $3,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $5,900,000 | $7,500,000 | $19,000,000 | $14,500,000 |
5/15/2026 | Is God Is | Amazon MGM Studios | $1,500,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,100,000 | $3,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $4,500,000 |
5/15/2026 | Obsession | Focus Features | $12,500,000 | $17,500,000 | $14,500,000 | $25,000,000 | $47,000,000 | $36,000,000 |
5/22/2026 | I Love Boosters | Neon | $3,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $11,800,000 |
5/22/2026 | Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | Disney | $81,000,000 | $96,000,000 | $90,000,000 ($105,200,000 4-day) | $166,000,000 | $239,000,000 | $224,000,000 |
5/22/2026 | Passenger | Paramount Pictures | $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $14,000,000 |
5/29/2026 | Backrooms | A24 | $25,000,000 | $33,000,000 | $31,000,000 | $45,000,000 | $79,000,000 | $71,000,000 |
5/29/2026 | The Breadwinner | Sony Pictures | $19,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $22,000,000 | $60,000,000 | $116,000,000 | $80,600,000 |
5/29/2026 | Pressure | Focus Features | $3,500,000 | $7,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $15,000,000 |
6/4/2026 | The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act | Fathom Entertainment | $10,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $14,500,000 | |||
6/5/2026 | Masters of the Universe | Amazon MGM Studios | $25,000,000 | $35,000,000 | $32,500,000 | |||
6/5/2026 | Scary Movie 6 | Paramount Pictures | $35,000,000 | $52,000,000 | $41,000,000 | |||
6/12/2026 | Disclosure Day | Universal Pictures | $45,000,000 | $59,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.
