History says one of these three golfers will win the Masters

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In one sense, numbers can be massaged to tell you almost anything you want them to. In another sense, the numbers at the Masters Tournament usually tell the same story each year. The major at Augusta is uniquely set in its ways, a bastion of tradition where not only its rituals are hard to change, but the probabilities are too.

A few examples: It’s very rare (three times in history) for a first-timer to win at the Masters. The past shows that the winner can usually absolutely bomb a long drive. The winner is also usually one of the top 20 players in the world, and typically not a long shot. And yes, that is unique compared to the other majors.

So, if the numbers are uniquely consistent at this tournament, why not use them to narrow the field to the most likely candidates to win it this year?

Sure, to repeat what we opened with: Numbers can be chosen to benefit the writer, and we could choose any number of trends that could forecast different players. Anything can happen on any given Thursday through Sunday, but at the Masters, there are some historical trends that really stick and help paint an accurate profile of a likely champ.

The 2026 Masters has 91 players teeing it up on Thursday. Let’s take 10 historic trends at Augusta, and narrow that field of 91 to the most likely golfer to don a green jacket on Sunday.

Picking a Masters winner

Trend 1: No first-timer has won the Masters since 1979.

Only three players have won the Masters on their first attempt, and only one has done so in the “modern era.” Fuzzy Zoeller, in 1979, was the last to achieve this feat. That means if you’re younger than 47, you weren’t alive for it. The other two were Gene Sarazen in 1935 and Horton Smith in 1934. Smith’s win in 1934 was at the first-ever Masters, so that was a given.

Of the players this eliminates, two buzzy names are already out: Jacob Bridgeman and Chris Gotterup. Sorry, guys.

This eliminates 22 players: Michael Brennan, Jacob Bridgeman, Ethan Fang (a), Ryan Gerard, Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin,
Harry Hall, Jackson Herrington (a), Brandon Holtz (a), Mason Howell (a), Casey Jarvis, Naoyuki Kataoka, John Keefer, Fifa Laopakdee (a), Tom McKibbin, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Andrew Novak, Marco Penge, Mateo Pulcini (a), Kristoffer Reitan, Samuel Stevens, Sami Valimaki

2. The last 10 Masters winners ranked inside the world top 25.

For this one, we are cheating a little bit and using Data Golf Rankings because LIV players are included with restrictions in the Official World Golf Rankings.

This is a biggie and eliminates another 45 players: Justin Rose, Sepp Straka, Justin Thomas, Harris English, Patrick Reed, Keegan Bradley, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry, Kurt Kitayama, Daniel Berger, Aaron Rai, Nicolas Echavarria, Jason Day, Michael Kim, Corey Conners, Matthew McCarty, Brian Harman, Ryan Fox, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Rasmus Højgaard, Max Greyserman, Jordan Spieth, Nick Taylor, Sungjae Im, Aldrich Potgieter, Wyndham Clark, Hao-Tong Li, Brian Campbell, Davis Riley, Carlos Ortiz, Max Homa, Brooks Koepka, Danny Willett, Mike Weir, Bubba Watson, Fred Couples, Dustin Johnson, Sergio García, Ángel Cabrera, Cameron Smith, Vijay Singh, José María Olazábal, Charl Schwartzel, Zach Johnson

3. Twenty-six of the last 28 winners had a top-30 finish at a previous Masters.

Goodbye to four more: Akshay Bhatia, Jake Knapp, Maverick McNealy, Alex Noren

4. Since 1998, all but one champion made the Masters cut the year prior to their win.

Another five: Russell Henley, Nicolai Højgaard, Robert MacIntyre, Cameron Young, Si Woo Kim

5. Only once since 2006 has the pre-tournament betting favorite won the Masters.

Goodbye Scottie. Except it was Scottie who was the first to buck the decades-long trend, winning as the betting favorite in 2024. But still. For this exercise, a trend is a trend.

Eliminated: Scottie Scheffler

6. The Masters hasn’t had a back-to-back champion since Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002.

Sorry, Rory. At least he planned a fun dinner.

Eliminated: Rory McIlroy

7. Nine of the last 10 winners had achieved a top 10 in one of their previous three starts.

Being consistently elite, but also hot at the right time, is key.

Eliminated: Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama

8. Eight of the last 10 winners had a previous top-10 finish at Augusta.

We did top-30 finishes above, but now we’re getting to the really elite Augusta arms.

Eliminated: Min Woo Lee, J.J. Spaun

9. Sixteen of the last 17 winners ranked inside the top 50 in driving distance the year preceding their win.

Augusta is for bombers.

Four more gone: Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa

10. Thirteen of the last 14 winners had three or more career PGA Tour wins.

One more out: Ludvig Åberg

The final three

So there you have it. That leaves us with three contenders who fit every trend above as they tee it up for the 90th edition of the Masters Tournament:

• Jon Rahm (won it in 2023)
• Bryson DeChambeau (best finish was a T5 in 2025)
• Xander Schauffele (best finish was a T2 in 2019)

Masters winner odds