How will Aryna Sabalenka fare in her 2026 clay-court debut? | Madrid Preview & Picks

For now, Sabalenka is starting in the right place. She’s a three-time champion in Madrid, and the fast conditions there suit her attack-first game. Stearns, though, may not be the easiest of opening opponents. Sabalenka is 2-0 against the American, but the first of those matches was a prolonged struggle at Indian Wells in 2024 that ended with her saving four match points to win 8-6 in a third-set tiebreaker. Their second match, which took place in Madrid 12 months ago, was a more routine 6-2, 6-4 win.

Still, Stearns, an athlete with a full-throttle forehand of her own, has played some good tennis recently, winning a title in Austin, and her semifinal run in Rome last year shows she can get comfortable on clay. Winner: Sabalenka